Page 64 - RPTRusFeb17

8.0 Financial & capital markets
Russia - Bank lead indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total bank loans (LC bn)
18,410 23,634 28,239 33,272 41,899 45,121
Total bank deposits (LC bn)
21,081 26,082 30,120 34,931 43,814 51,907
NPLs (% loans)
4.68 3.95 3.7 3.46 3.82 5.33
Banks: NPL ratio Retail (%)
6.91 5.24 4.05 4.42 5.89 8.09
Bank deposits (% GDP)
45.52 43.69 45 49.16 56.25 64.24
Bank loans (% GDP)
39.2 39 41.4 45.7 52.5 57.4
Bank capital to assets ratio
12.84 11.92 11.94 11.54 8.91 9.1
CAR: bank capital to risk-weighted assets
18.1 14.7 13.7 13.5 12.5 12.7
Total bank assets (LC bn)
33,805 41,628 49,510 57,423 77,653 83,000
Banks: Loans/deposits (%)
87.33 90.61 93.75 95.25 95.63 86.93
Banks: ROAE (%)
12.5 17.6 18.2 15.2 7.9 2.3
source: CBR
The January banking data brought no significant surprises: seasonally weak lending and outflows from retail accounts. The coming months might show a recovery in demand for loans in the corporate segment, as well as increasing growth in retail credits on the back of seasonal trends and a potential economic recovery.
The share of Russians who are saving and not spending was at a record high level in January 2017, a ccording to the polls for the FOM Central Bank (measures inflation expectations and consumer sentiment households). The consumer sentiment index showed a sharp jump in January, returning to October 2014 levels. The reason was an improvement in the expectations of growth in personal wealth in 2017.
Some 21% of respondents (19% in December 2016) consider now is a good time for major purchases. But if that means cutting into savings Russians won’t buy, according to FOM. In January, 23% of respondents said now is a time to save not shop -- is the highest level in the history of FOM surveys.
The pace of credit growth of the Russian economy in the current year will be positive, about 4-7%, according to the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. "We see it and we expect that in 2017 will be positive rates of credit growth. But they will not be high, 4-7%, since lending capacity should be adequate economic growth. The pace of credit growth may be higher, but not much, otherwise you may begin to form bubbles debt,” she said.
64 RUSSIA Country Report February 2017 www.intellinews.com