Page 7 - TURKRptNov20

September 2017, we reported on how Germany’s Commerzbank had concluded that the country’s official GDP figures were “more than questionable”. In the past two years, we’ve reported on how opposition politicians have protested in parliament that Turkey’s inflation data is not credible.
Turkey’s official inflation rate in June was 11.4%, but in a survey conducted that month by Metropoll, around one-third of respondents said the real inflation rate was above 30%. Only around 15% of those quizzed said the official figure was correct.
Turkish monthly inflation was more than triple the official rate in September,​according to a ​new model​developed by a group of academics and researchers named Inflation Research Group (ENAG).
ENAG’s first published finding shows that Turkish consumer prices in September rose 3.61% from the previous month, compared to TUIK’s calculation of 0.97%. The group will not be able to publish an annual inflation assessment until it has collected data for another 11 months.
The ENAG model showed that tablets and computer prices were up more than 30% in September from August due to school reopenings. TUIK put these items at around 4% m/m.
2.4​ ​US elections
A growing ​worry​on the horizon for Turkey is the US presidential election on November 3.
Turkey on October 16 t​est-fired​S-400 missiles that it acquired last year from Russia.
Erdogan’s move suggests that expectations are strengthening for chaos in the US ahead of the election. And Erdogan wouldn’t like anyone else to take pole position in testing that growing anticipation.
It could just be that Erdogan is convinced Joe Biden is set to win and that he won’t be able to persuade the new president to lay off on sanctions. So, he’s setting out on a new, affirmed authoritarian path. Might it mean full-blown authoritarianism and unlawfulness is ahead for Turkish society? Turks have remained convinced throughout the past decade that things can go so far, but they can’t go any further...
If Erdogan was betting on a Trump win, he’d most probably hesitate in giving his populist pal in the Oval Office (it’s said that Erdogan’s numerous calls are always put through by the White House switchboard) another headache prior to big polling day.
Erdogan has fired his S-400s. Everything is normal. The US system is digesting developments. Will it be able to stomach this latest normality as presented by the palace in Ankara? Or is a different normality to prevail?
2.5​ ​Politics - shorts
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway agreed to pay $4.14mn to settle civil allegations that a Turkish subsidiary committed “egregious” violations of US sanctions on Iran,​the US Treasury Department ​said​on October 20.
The EU is Erdogan’s ​biggest​foreign investor and relies on him to host
7​ TURKEY Country Report​ November 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com