Page 15 - UKRRptDec21

3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine's real GDP in the third quarter of 2021 grew by 2.4% compared with 5.7 % growth in the third quarter of 2020. The statistic was published by the State Statistics Service on Monday. According to its data, in comparison to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), GDP increased by 1.4%.
Ukraine’s 3Q21 real GDP increased 2.4% y/y, slowing from 5.7% y/y growth in 2Q21, according to the preliminary estimates by the State Statistics Service released on November 15. The seasonally adjusted GDP increased 1.4% qoq in 3Q21.
This is another set of disappointing statistics showing the extreme weakness of Ukraine’s economy. With a 3.5% y/y fall of the economy in 3Q20, the result of 3Q21 means that Ukraine’s output is still below its pre-pandemic level.
The poor recovery of the economy in 3Q21 makes our forecast of GDP growth in 20201 at 4.1% y/y irrelevant. As we expected, the performance of the agriculture and construction sectors in 2H21 will be good, but will not be enough to offset the incredibly weak results in manufacturing. That said, our current outlook for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 is at 3.2% y/y.
The level of the shadow economy in Ukraine has exceeded 30% of all economic activity. Two of the four methods used to assess the level of the shadow economy recorded an increase compared to January-June 2020, announced the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. The level of the shadow economy in 2020 was equal to 30% of the volume of the official gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine. This is 3% more than in 2019 (27%).
15 UKRAINE Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com