Page 26 - UKRRptDec21

5.2 Balance of payments
Ukraine’s goods trade balance switched to a deficit of $254mn in September from a surplus of $140mn in August, the State Statistics Service announced in a preliminary report on November 15. The seasonally adjusted goods balance was a surplus of $7mn (vs. a $95mn deficit in August) amid 2.1% m/m growth of adjusted exports and a 0.4% m/m increase in adjusted imports.
Goods exports jumped 53% y/y in September to $6.40bn (vs. a 49% y/y increase in August). The accelerated growth was mostly driven by exports of ferrous metals (2.4x year-on-year) and crop products (up 72% y/y).
Goods imports increased 41% y/y to $6.65bn in September (vs. 37% y/y growth in August). The major contributors to the accelerated growth included energy products (2.5x year-on-year) and chemicals (up 50% y/y).
In 9M21, the goods trade deficit amounted to $2.0bn (vs. a deficit of $3.2bn in 9M20); goods exports increased 38.2% y/y and imports jumped 31.9% y/y.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The slower growth in exports of mineral products (mainly caused by lower global prices for iron ore) was replaced by the accelerated growth of crop exports. The growth of imports is maintained by the ongoing increase of energy prices.
We expect the goods trade deficit to amount to $4.5bn in 2021 (vs. a deficit of $5.1bn in 2020).
26 UKRAINE Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com