Page 6 - MEOG Week 08

MEOG Commentary MEOG
Oil flows behind the curtain in North-East Syria
While the eyes of the world have focused attention on Syria’s Idlib province, oil is being smuggled out of the country by the SDF.
syria
What:
Significant quantities of oil are being smuggled from north-east Syria to Iraq.
Why:
Competing powers have created a vacuum which allows for the smuggling to take place.
What next:
The situation on the ground can change at any time.
WHILE the misery of the inhabitants of Syria’s Idlib Province amid competing powers’ involve- ment has naturally been the focus of the world’s press, it is worth lifting the veil on at what is hap- pening in another part of Syria
North-east Syria is a large wedge of terri- tory – also known as Rojava – and is a de facto autonomous region which makes up more than a quarter of the entire country and is the largest area outside of the control of the Syrian presi- dent, Bashar al-Assad, and his allies.
The region is home to sizeable ethnic Kurd- ish, Arab and Assyrian populations and is largely under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which has a Kurdish backbone, and gained its autonomy in 2012. The region is not officially recognised as autonomous by the government of Syria or any international state.
Last year the US withdrew from many of its bases in northern Syria, substantially reducing its presence there and disrupting anti-ISIL opera- tions. By the end of October, the US had adopted a subordinate mission to protect SDF-controlled oil and gas infrastructure, including oilfields, from the ISIL insurgency, as the terror group had previously used profits from oil smuggling to fund its activities.
Following the US withdrawal, the SDF lost much of its territory to a Turkish invasion, which led the SDF to allow Syrian army forces to enter the cities of Manbij and Kobane to protect them from being captured by Turkey and its allies. The deal effectively hands over control of huge swathes of the region to Damascus.
That leaves north-eastern Syria divided between Syrian regime forces, Syrian opposi- tion militia and their Turkish allies, and areas still held by the SDF – for now. It is not clear if their fighters will actually clash – nor how much formerly Kurdish-held land the Turkish side and Syrian government respectively will seek to claim. But with two armies on the move, and pockets of US troops still in the conflict zone, the potential for escalation is high.
The region has seen major activity involving forces of ISIL and is the location of its last strong- hold of Raqaa. With US support, including arms and airstrikes, the Kurds managed to beat back ISIL and went on to win a string of victories
against the radical militant group. Along the way the fighters absorbed non-Kurdish groups, changed their name to the SDF and grew to include 60,000 soldiers.
turkey’s objectives
Turkey aims first of all to push the SDF away from its border, creating a 20-mile (32-km) buffer zone that would have been jointly patrolled by Turkish and US troops until Trump’s announce- ment that American soldiers would withdraw from the region.
Officials in Ankara have signalled that they may seek to go further than the buffer zone in this current military operation.
The Turkish president said he would seek to relocate more than 1mn Syrian refugees in this “safe zone”, both removing them from his coun- try (where their presence has started to create a backlash) and complicating the demographic mix in what he fears could become an autono- mous Kurdish state on his border.
Mixed up in this are nearly 11,000 ISIL fight- ers, including almost 2,000 foreigners and tens of thousands of their wives and children. They are being held in detention camps and hastily forti- fied prisons across north-eastern Syria.
The SDF has been pleading for international assistance in dealing with these prisoners, whose former countries including the US, UK and Aus- tralia have been reluctant to take back.
SDF leaders have warned they cannot guar- antee the security of these prisoners if they are forced to redeploy their forces to the frontlines of a war against Turkey. They also fear ISIL could use the chaos of war to mount attacks to free their fighters or reclaim territory. Throughout 2019 the SDF and its allies continued to attack ISIL enclaves near the Iraqi border, which reportedly resulted in multiple ISIL fighters being killed and wounded. Up to 600 ISIL fighters are thought to be defending a small stronghold in Syria’s east- ern governate of Deir Ezzor and last month SDF managed to kill two ISIL members, including Abu Alward Al-Iraqi, who was responsible for oil trading, in the governorate.
Kurds’ financial lifeline
In this maelstrom of competing interests there
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 08 26•February•2020