Page 9 - TURKRptAug21

The Turkish lira is ready for fresh records.
● Balance of Payments: Current account deficit continues. Financial flows have recently stabilized. There is not much hot money left.
As a result, the game is played only among locals and they were on holiday in July.
The current account deficit will be watched after the tourism season ends.
It was early in November when it dawned on the government that it did not have the firepower to continue defending the lira the way it had been.
A sharp U-turn that brought in a central bank governor triggered hot money inflows from abroad. On March 19, the governor was fired.
● Eurobond auctions continued in July.
● NPLs, bailouts and debt restructuring queues.
● Snap polls?
Erdogan is in trouble in all fields. He is in a big hole. He is open to any kind of frenzy.
● The ultimate end: Turkey still has access to borrowing on the markets—though each instance of borrowing at these costs brings the country closer to the ultimate end, namely an economic and political surrender to an IMF programme.
A new version of the ruling party, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), working under an IMF programme is the likeliest potential major change you might see on the road ahead.
9 TURKEY Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com