Page 150 - RusRPTMay21

Due to the low number of capacity closures, steel demand in Russia was down only 3% YoY in 2020 and is expected to grow 3% YoY in 2021-22.
The World Steel Association (WSA, formerly IISI) has published its Short Range Outlook for 2021-22. Global steel demand in 2021 is set to grow 5.8% YoY thanks to the post-COVID-19 recovery before normalizing to a growth of 2.7% YoY in 2022. Commenting on steel demand trends in 2020, WSA noted that while demand in China recovered promptly (+9.1% YoY), the rest of the world saw demand drop 10% YoY, resulting in a marginal decline (-0.2% YoY) in global steel demand in 2020.
China remains the main driver of global steel demand. The country’s strong economic recovery, supported by solid demand from the construction and machinery industries, resulted in Chinese domestic steel demand growing 9.1% YoY in 2020. WSA expects Chinese steel demand to grow 3% YoY in 2021 and 1% YoY in 2022.
Developed markets are on the recovery path. Due to the strong impact of COVID-19, steel demand in developed economies fell 12.7% YoY in 2020. As the main steel-consuming markets (the US, EU and Japan) see their activities recover, steel demand in the developed world is set to rise 8.2% YoY in 2021 and 4.2% YoY in 2022. Despite the strong recovery rates, steel demand in absolute terms in 2022 is expected to fall short of 2019 levels, WSA estimates.
Emerging economies are on their way to a rapid recovery, conditions allowing. Due to their nature, the economies of emerging markets suffered from COVID-19 restrictions, with steel demand falling 7.8% YoY in 2020. High-density markets, such as India and Latin America, felt the largest impact. Looking ahead, the recovery rates for steel demand should be 10.5% YoY and 5.2% YoY in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The accumulation of debts, a lack of international tourism and slow vaccination rates will prevent a faster recovery. Due to the low number of capacity closures, steel demand in Russia was down only 3% YoY in 2020 and is expected to grow 3% YoY in 2021-22. Steel demand in Turkey, one of the main export markets for Russian steel, is expected to post a strong recovery in 2021 (+18.7% YoY) and to see further growth through 2022 (+5.7% YoY).
150 RUSSIA Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com