Page 166 - RusRPTMay21

Residential sales were flat YoY in 1Q21 at 126k sqm, while RUB sales rose 33% YoY to RUB 18.4bn, which can be fully attributed to the price advance. Yesterday, PIK released comparable numbers, showing a 7% YoY volumes increase and 32% YoY rise in RUB sales. We note that these two companies are the most aggressive in the sector, based on land acquisitions, sales launches and their near term development pipelines.
Samolet maintained its 2021 guidance for a 49% YoY surge in residential sales to 732k sqm. Amid the largest land bank in the country (20mn sqm) and potential for different sales level, we still see the target as overly upbeat as it would require a 65% YoY rise in the remaining three quarters of the year. Our model factors a 22% YoY volume increase to 600k sqm in 2021.
The preliminary financial data for 1Q21 positively surprised. Revenues added a further 36% YoY, while EBITDA surged 2.5x to RUB 4.5bn. The latter benefited from the pick-up in the construction pipeline after it slowed somewhat during 2020 on the lockdowns as well as price increases.
The financial guidance for 2021 sees a 70% YoY increase in revenues to RUB 102bn and EBITDA doubling to RUB 22bn. In its strategy, Samolet has 3-6x higher key operating and financial metrics by 2023. We think that can only be reached if it delivers on its short-term upbeat targets.
Samolet’s shares have gained 60% since the IPO on 29 October 2020 and now demand P/NAV of 0.4x, with a 20% discount to the sectoral average. The company’s Board of Directors confirmed a 2020 dividend of not less than RUB 2.5bn, and the same amount for 1H21, while the total annualised payout of at least RUB 5bn meets the dividend policy and implies a 5.3% yield. Payments are scheduled for July and October, respectively, with the final BoD recommendation in May.
Samolet Group has published the valuation of its portfolio as of 31 December 2020. Its residential real estate projects (excluding brand, technological start-ups and other components) reached RUB 260.5bn, adding 47% vs. June 2020, with a total size of 20mn sqm (up 30% HoH). All projects are located in the Moscow Metropolitan Area. The company offers the most aggressive development profile (for the short-term) of the companies under our coverage, while having the country’s largest land bank and enjoying sector tailwinds. The current P/NAV of 0.32x implies a 30% discount to the sector blended level, while the reiteration of the company’s plans to pay RUB 5bn in dividends for FY20 returns a 6.1% annualised yield.
LSR published 1Q21 operating results that were mild reflecting
166 RUSSIA Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com