Page 31 - bne_Magazine_September_2018

bne September 2018 Special focus I 31
who have committed to a company. The change in mentality has been bolstered by the government which is increas- ingly looking to dividend payments as the way to extract cash from its hold- ings, rather than using taxes. Owners
– private and public – want minority shareholders. They want to see the value of their stock increase. And they are willing to share their profits with minorities.
Russia’s 2017 dividend season came
to an end in August and the leading companies paid out a record RUB1.69 trillion ($26.7bn) to shareholders, up by 16% year-on-year and a new record.
State-owned enterprises have become increasingly attractive after the Ministry of Finance ordered them to make a 50% payout of profits as dividends last year. While most of the biggest companies have managed to get themselves exempted, their opposition is crumbling and all of them have increased their dividend payout. Most of the state companies are expected to hit the 50% target sometime in the next year.
And owners have been steadily increas- ing the amount they pay out. This sea- son the average dividend yield was 38% of net profit as compared to 31% for 2016, according to Russia’s home-grown rating agency the Analytic Credit Rating Agency (ACRA).
The average dividend yield is 5.5%, but focusing on the best names investors can earn two or three times more. BCS Global Markets has a dividend stock basket that paid an average dividend yield of 11.8% this season as the cash component of the investment, and oil major Surgutneftegaz is expected to pay a whopping 19% to its shareholders this year.
The outsized return from just picking stocks with good dividends has made these generous companies extra attrac- tive and as a result they have outper- formed the overall market, as Moscow Exchange (MOEX) explains with their dividend stock tracker (see related piece) that runs head of the index
by about 17%.
Dividend expectations for most liquid Russian names
Stock Rec Price, RUB/s
Norilsk Nickel
Surgutneftegas pref.
MMK
Severstal
ALROSA
LSR Group
NLMK
Sberbank pref.
Enel Russia
Tatneft pref.
Globaltrans
VEON
RusHydro
Federal Grid Co.
Etalon Group
MTS
Rostelecom pref.
Sberbank
Detsky Mir
Unipro
Moscow Exchange
AFK Sistema
Rostelecom
VTB
Megafon
TCS Group
Tatneft
Polyus
Transneft pref.
Gazprom
Rosneft
Gazprom Neft
Polymetal
LUKOIL
NCSP
Rusagro
RusGrids
Inter RAO
Aeroflot
Acron
PhosAgro
X5 Retail Group (DR)
Magnit
TMK
O'Key
Surgutneftegas SELL NOVATEK
12MF DPS, RUB 63.9
1,500 4.18 5.45 118 10 78 16.2 18 0.12 46.9 68.4 17.5 0.06 0.015 15.2 22.6 5.2 18 7.5 0.22 8.1 0.7 5.2
12MF DY
14.00% 13.80% 12.10% 11.80% 11.60% 10.30% 10.10% 10.00% 9.90% 9.80% 9.70% 9.50% 9.30% 8.80% 8.80% 8.70% 8.60% 8.40% 8.40% 8.40% 8.20% 7.90% 7.70% 7.40% 7.20% 6.80% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 5.60% 5.60% 5.50% 5.50% 5.30% 4.90% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.60% 4.20% 4.00% 3.80% 3.40% 3.20% 3.00% 2.40% 2.20%
12MF DY
14.00% 13.80% 12.10% 11.80% 11.60% 10.30% 10.10% 10.00% 9.90% 9.80% 9.70% 9.50% 9.30% 8.80% 8.80% 8.70% 8.60% 8.40% 8.40% 8.40% 8.20% 7.90% 7.70% 7.40% 7.20% 6.80% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 5.60% 5.60% 5.50% 5.50% 5.30% 4.90% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.60% 4.20% 4.00% 3.80% 3.40% 3.20% 3.00% 2.40% 2.20%
EVRAZ* SELL
456 HOLD 10,882
HOLD 34.6 HOLD 46.3 SELL 1,020 HOLD 97.3 BUY 774 SELL 162
- 182 - 1.23 - 482
BUY 717 - 189 - 0.68 - 0.17
BUY 175 - 264 - 62 - 215
BUY 89.8
- 2.7
- 103
- 9.07
- 70.3
- 0.048 0.0035 - 590 40
- 1,334 87.1 HOLD 721 46.9 BUY 4,469 290
SELL 162,600 HOLD 144 BUY 419 BUY 328 HOLD 545
BUY 4,452 - 6.42 BUY 667 - 0.77 - 4.14 BUY 123
- 4,540 SELL 2,284 BUY 1,670 BUY 4,128
10,517 8.04 23.4 18.2 30.1 237 0.31 31.3 0.036 0.193 5.61 190 92 64 140 2.28 3.76 0.7 20.7
HOLD 70.4 BUY 125 29 924
Source: Bloomberg, BCS GM
BUY
* Low conviction
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