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15% while the central bank has a 9.4% target.
On April 29, Kavcioglu would release his first end-2021 official inflation forecast in a regular quarterly inflation report.
● May 6: Monetary policy committee meeting decision at 14h Istanbul time.
April 15: Hold at 19%.
● Lira loans flow: Fastening.
● USD/TRY: It is watched when the dam breaks again.
‘Childish’ attempts emanating from Ankara at pushing parity below the 8-level when the foreign markets were closed during Easter holiday proved short-lived.
● Balance of Payments: Current account deficit continues. Financial outflows will be watched in the coming period.
Some more portfolio outflows from Turkey are expected. There won’t be much left soon.
As a result, the game will be played only among locals and the current account deficit will be watched.
It was early in November when it dawned on the government that it did not have the firepower to continue defending the lira the way it had been.
A sharp U-turn that brought in a central bank governor triggered hot money inflows from abroad. On March 19, the governor was fired.
● Eurobond auctions?: Pegasus is awaited.
● NPLs, bailouts and debt restructuring queues continue (See Section 7.1.4).
● Snap polls?
Domestic politics, social dismay and the ongoing lira depreciation will be Erdogan’s main troubles in the period ahead. He faces a tough shift. It could lead him to some frenzies.
2.2 Politics - shorts
Some Turkish exporters are “re-routing food, clothing and other goods” to circumvent a months-long unofficial blockade by Saudi Arabia that has pushed down bilateral trade to record lows.
US-based Pinterest decided to establish a legal entity in Turkey to comply with the social media law.
Turkey’s Ronesans Holding and Aksa Enerji (AKSEN) signed some contractorship agreements with some Libyan counterparts at a televised ceremony in Ankara on the evening of April 12.
Georgia suspended the construction works at the Namakhvani hydropower plant under development by a consortium formed by Turkish engineering company ENKA (90%) and Norway’s Clean Energy Group (10%) under a
9 TURKEY Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com