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Eskom take positive view on power supplies as lockdown enters force
SOUTH AFRICA
ESKOM has not ruled out the prospect of load-shedding during the country’s coronavi- rus COVID-19 lockdown, despite expected falls in power demand and an end to the company’s capacity squeeze.
Eskom said on March 25 that it could not offer any guarantees on future power supplies, even as the country’s wider economy braced for a financial hit from the government’s severe lockdown.
“At this point we do not have any plans to implement load-shedding,” Eskom spokesper- son Sikonathi Mantshantsha said.
“We do, of course, expect that demand will drop as big industry shuts down, that in its very nature will mean we will have increased capacity to supply electricity,” he said.
The unreliability of many of Eskom’s gener- ating plants, the cause of numerous power cuts in recent months, meant the company could not make any accurate predictions.
“We think we will be able to get through with the capacity that we have, helped by the reduc- ing demand. We can’t guarantee it, though,” he added.
Mantshantsha added that Eskom would be able to generate power and perform its normal business on a daily basis during lockdown.
“Maintenance will continue, as planned, we don’t foresee any problems there,” he said.
On March 26, Eskom insisted that power sup- plies would be maintained.
“We do not expect any impediments to the generation [and] supply of electricity during this period. Our suppliers, particularly the coal mines, logistic suppliers and those supplying the maintenance to our power stations will be able to operate through the lockdown,” said Mantshantsha.
Meanwhile, South African Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe was
slightly more positive, claiming that it was unlikely there would be load-shedding.
However, such reassurances have proved to be worthless since 2019. For example, in January Eskom enforced load-shedding despite promises from Mantashe and President Cyril Ramaphosa that there would be no power outages during the New Year holiday in early January. This forced the then Eskom chair Jabu Mabuza to resign.
“Statistically, the probability of load-shedding should decrease [during SA’s lockdown]. But if there is a series of breakdowns at Eskom, as has happened in the past, it’s not inconceivable,” said Chris Yelland of EE Business Intelligence.
Meanwhile, Eskom said on March 25 that coal stocks at its power stations were healthy, with at least 20 days of supplies, Reuters reported.
The company said that as its activities were “essential services,” it could apply for some exemptions from the lockdown rules.
Eskom’s latest statement on March 25 said that no load-shedding was expected during the lockdown. It said that unplanned outages or breakdowns stood at 12,175 MW on March 25, and planned maintenance outages were 4,245 MW.
Although Eskom is being cautiously opti- mistic, the country’s wider mining industry is prepared to take a severe economic hit as output falls, costs potentially rise and workers are forced to stay at home.
The 21-day lockdown, announced on March 23 and to come into force on March 26, means that many mining operations such as deep-level shafts will have to be shut, causing considerable expenditure on reopening them in future.
“There are marginal and loss-making mines that would likely be unable to reopen should they be required to close fully, without remedial measures,” South Africa’s Minerals Council said, Reuters reported.
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