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operators, which we estimate at 20-30% y/y for the summer collection.
Bad news for this summer: Russia might be facing an ice cream shortage. Roughly 40% of Russia’s ice cream producers worry that they won’t meet the June 1 deadline to implement the government’s new labeling regulations. Producers are asking the authorities to hold off on fining label violations until August. The government’s decision is not yet clear, but the last thing the authorities need on their hands amid rising food prices is for its ice-cream-loving population to be deprived of critical supplies!
9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
According to a Eurasian Economic Union decision, the total number of developing countries, which currently have a 25% discount for their import duty to Russia, might be more than halved. The respective measure is to be put in place from 1 October 2021. The share of imported meat in total consumption was 6% as of 2020, having dropped from 30% over the past ten years. The highest share was in beef (14%), while it was a moderate 5% for poultry and almost zero for pork. The following measure is likely to lift import prices further, decreasing their competitive stance, and might provide further opportunities for domestic producers to increase their capacities.
The government has allocated a RUB9bn cost reimbursement subsidy for sugar and vegetable oil producers for 2021. The initiative is regionally based, with the Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar regions to account for 40% of the total amount. In our coverage universe, Rusagro has estimated a monthly loss of RUB200mn (equivalent to 12% of our 2021F net profit forecast)
132 RUSSIA Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com