Page 155 - RusRPTJun21

several occasions that it had no plans to sell Ozon shares, but an official lock-up agreement fully removes the risk of an SPO (and hence of pressure on stock) for the near-term, from Baring Vostok’s side as a well. Sistema, Baring Vostok agreed to a 90-day lock-up for their stakes in Ozon. This is according to Ozon’s press release, while Sistema also told Interfax that the lock-up covers a period from 18 May to the second half of August. To remind, the previous lock-up was supposed to expire from next week. This announcement was part of Ozon’s notice of an SPO by several minority shareholders (not specified) for 2.9% share capital, which happened yesterday at $50/ADS (3% discount to previous day’s close). These minority holders agreed to a 45 days lock-up for their remaining shares.
Ozon 1Q21 IFRS GMV growth strong, guidance upped
Ozon reported 1Q21 IFRS results. The results saw a greater loss on EBITDA than expected, but focus remains on GMV growth, which continued strongly. Strong GMV growth continued, while guidance was upped – our current forecast at the bottom end. EBITDA loss was above expectations, but we believe strong GMV growth is more important at this stage.
· Ozon’s GMV (including services) grew 2.3x y/y in 1Q21 to Rb74bn. This was driven by a 2.6x increase in the number of orders: 77% more active buyers (16mn) and 33% higher order frequency LTM (5.9)
· GMV y/y growth somewhat slowed vs 4Q20, which we believe was due to the tougher comparison base in March 2020, as epidemiological risk started to rise then
· Marketplace (3P) accounted for 58% GMV (up from 33% in 1Q20) and remained the key growth driver
· Revenue increased 67% y/y to Rb33bn, reflecting the uplift in GMV and lagging it for accounting reasons (i.e., due to 3P growing faster than 1P)
· Ad revenue was up 132% (at c2% GMV)
· Fintech: the number of Ozon cards grew 73% q/q to 0.8mn (5%
active buyers)
· Adj. EBITDA loss expanded 8% to Rb4.9bn, though narrowed as
a% of GMV to 7% (from 14% in 1Q20); contribution profit was a minor negative (Rb0.1bn vs negative Rb1.7bn in 1Q20). Net loss also grew 17% as a result (Rb6.7bn)
· OCF stood at negative Rb12bn (vs negative Rb2bn in 1Q20) – the seasonal impact from working capital amplified by increased GMV. FCF was thus also hit: negative Rb15bn vs negative Rb4bn in 1Q20. CapEx was up c80% (to Rb2bn)
· Guidance 2021: GMV growth guidance was raised – up 100%+ (90%+ previously); CapEx guidance was reiterated at Rb20-25bn (up 1.9x-2.6x)
· Conference Call – Focus Points:
· As expected, GMV growth faced tougher comps in 2Q21 (2Q20
boosted by the lockdown), but on a 2-year stack, GMV trends
remain solid
· Ozon’s Fintech already account for 10% of GMV (mostly payments
via Ozon cash-back card; several% – purchase on credit) – should keep growing.
155 RUSSIA Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com