Page 33 - RusRPTJun21

3.0 Macro Economy 3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Rosstat released its first estimate of Russia’s 1Q21 GDP dynamics based on the production method, and revised up the contraction in the first quarter of this year from -1.4% to -1%, the state statistics agency said on May 17.
Russia’s economy suffered surprisingly little damage during last year’s annus horribilis, which is doubly surprising as the 3% of GDP the government spent on stimulus measures was also on of the most frugal in the world. According to Sber the economy is now just a tad below the level it as at a the end of 2019 and has almost made back all the ground it lost in 2020 to the multiple shocks.
Rosstat also reported earlier that the economy returned to growth of 0.5% in March, but the contractions of 2.2% and 2.5% in January and February respectively were enough to ensure there was a contraction for the first quarter as a whole.
“The estimate appeared to be better than our and market expectations (-1.4% y/y and -1.2% y/y, respectively), as well as Ministry of Economic Development estimates (-1.3% y/y),” Sberbank CIB said in a note.
Although there was no detailed breakdown, Rosstat noted improved dynamics in wholesale trade turnover (+4.2% y/y vs. +0.9% y/y in 4Q20), manufacturing (+0.9% y/y in 1Q21 vs. +2.3% y/y in 4Q20 and +0.7% y/y in 2020) and electricity, gas and steam, Sber reported
At the same time, mining and quarrying posted a contraction of 7.3% y/y in 1Q21 (vs. -8.1% y/y in 4Q20), and retail trade turnover improved marginally
33 RUSSIA Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com