Page 36 - RusRPTJun21

The World Bank said in a new report that it now expects Russia’s gross domestic product to grow at 3.2% in 2021 and at the same rate in 2022, up from 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively, in March.
The World Bank said Russia has room for a more gradual fiscal consolidation than planned, but warned that a reduction in government spending would result in significant output losses.
Despite the fact that Russia’s economic contraction in 2020 was the deepest in 11 years, the country outperformed the global economy, which shrank by 3.8%.
At the end of March, the World Bank improved its estimates of Russia’s economic growth – from 2.6% to 2.9% in 2021, while the estimate for 2022 was improved from 3.0% to 3.2%.
The Ministry of Economic Development believes that in 2021 the GDP of the Russian Federation will grow by 2.9%, but the indicator will depend on the implementation of the National Economic Development Plan and the speed of COVID-19 vaccination.
The European Commission has raised the outlook for Russian gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 to 2.7% from 2% and the outlook for 2022 to 2.3% from 1.9%, the authority said in a statement. The Russian economy shrank by 3% in 2020, the European Commission said, changing the estimate from 4.2%.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Annual growth in industrial production jumped to 7.2% in April after 2.3% in March (revised upward from 1.1%), meaning 1.1% in 4m21.
The acceleration was primarily driven by a low-base effect, as industrial production plunged 8.9% in April last year at the peak of the pandemic. Meanwhile, on a m/m basis, seasonally adjusted industrial production growth slowed from 1.2% in March to 0% in April.
The biggest y/y increase in April was seen in manufacturing (14.2%), water supply, sewage and waste management (25.9%), and electricity, gas and steam (6.2%).
The only y/y decline came in mining output (down 1.8% y/y). All manufacturing segments recorded a y/y uptick in April with the exception of printing.
Analysts expect the upbeat y/y numbers to keep coming in over the next few months due to the low-base effect. Sberbank CIB said in a note that it sees industrial production growth at 4% for 2021 as a whole.
36 RUSSIA Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com