Page 75 - RusRPTJun21

6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
Budget revenues totaled RUB2.185 trln in April. Although this is 3.7% less than last year, it bears keeping in mind that last April the budget saw a one-off RUB1.1 trln inflow thanks to the Sber deal.
As had been expected, the largest revenue gain came in the oil and gas sector which saw revenues rise to RUB893bn (up 106% y/y) thanks to higher oil prices. Non-oil and gas revenues were down 30% y/y but if adjusted for the Sber deal they were up nearly 76%. Budget expenditures, meanwhile, rose 6% y/y to reach RUB2.268 trln. This means there was a deficit of RUB82bn during the month of April, although overall for the first four months of the year the budget was in surplus to the tune of RUB123bn.
If oil prices remain high (our forecast for this year is $68/bbl), we think the budget may remain in a small surplus this year even despite the planned increase in expenditures (as laid out in President Putin's recent address).
Oil & gas revenues were up +RUB459bn y/y in April, VAT proceeds increased +RUB285bn y/y, whereas 'other revenues' were down RUB962bn y/y (last April saw RUB1.1 trillion of revenues from the Sber deal).
Both oil & gas and nonoil & gas revenues have been visibly outpacing MinFin’s plan: the former results in the faster accumulation of funds in the NWF, whereas the latter allows for the lifting of spending matching the amount of extra nonoil & gas revenues.
Not only are extra nonoil & gas proceeds allowing for a spending uptick, but
75 RUSSIA Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com