Page 30 - RUSRptOct18

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro Indicators
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annual GDP (y/y)
4.26 3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5
GDP (per capita)
13,324 14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,731 /
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, (local currency)
37,208,226 42,205,094 47,163,119 56,336,400 59,116,800 59,822,700 64,637,500
GDP: Gross fixed investment capital formation, (local currency)
13,982,500 15,223,900 15,077,000 16,436,100 16,812,800 18,112,400 19,944,000
GDP: Exports, (local currency)
16,940,900 18,413,100 18,936,600 21,464,200 23,606,500 22,124,300 17,083,600 (Jan-Sep)
GDP: Imports, (local currency)
12,164,400 13,848,100 15,014,100 16,296,400 17,095,200 17,685,800 13,716,100 (Jan-Sep)
Source: Rosstat, CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
Industrial output growth in Russia in August slowed down to 2.7% year-on-year from July's 3.9% y/y growth but growth momentum was maintained, according to the date by RosStat statistics agency. Despite the slowdown the numbers exceeded the expectations with Reuters analyst consensus expecting 2.5% growth in August. In January-August overall Russia's industry expanded by 3.1%.
Slight industrial output growth deterioration in the reporting month is in line with the August manufacturing PMI reading, which was slightly up m/m to 48.9 from 48.1 in July , but still in the negative territory below the 50 no-change mark.
The result underlined the fragile nature of the economic recovery that has hurt industrial producers, although service providers have been doing much better and have been keeping the composite PMI index in the black for this year. All-in-all Russia’s manufacturing is keeping its head above water and slowly recovering.
According to the latest Rosstat data, extraction in August increased by 4.5% y/y versus 3.2% seen in July, driven by higher output and exports of oil supported by relaxing the Opec+ output cuts. At the same time the output of coal jumped by 11.5% in August, on the background of recent suggestions by the government to support the coal industry in the long-term.
Manufacturing growth, however, slowed down to 2.2% in August from 4.6% in July. "We believe that the uncertainty linked to the strengthening of sanction rhetoric towards Russia has negatively affected a number of key manufacturing sectors," Uralsib Capital commented on September 17.
Nevertheless, Uralsib analysts still expect moderate industrial output growth maintained in the coming months.
30 RUSSIA Country Report October 2018 www.intellinews.com