Page 7 - BNE_magazine_bne_September 2019

bne September 2019 The Month That Was I 7
Economics
Eastern Europe
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says sanctions have had a lesser impact on Russia’s GDP growth than low oil prices, in the latest country report on Russia published on August
2. In 2014-2018, sanctions slowed GDP growth by an average of 0.2pp (percent- age points) annually, or RUB1 trillion ($15bn), the IMF estimated. At the same the decline in global oil prices had a 0.65pp negative effect or $48.75bn in monetary terms per annum.
Russia's consumer price index (CPI) posted a growth of 0.2% month-on- month in July, with year-on-year inflation slowing to 4.6%, according
to the data of the Rosstat agency. The m/m inflation was below the consensus expectations of 0.2%. In y/y terms infla- tion was in line with expectations and on the way to converge to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) target of 4%.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he plans to invest “at least $20bn in infrastructure” during a speech at the Ukrainian- Turkish business forum in Istanbul on August 8, reports Interfax.
Ukraine's international reserves increased by 5.8% month-on-
month to $21.84bn in July following a 6.4% m/m growth in June, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Ukraine's state budget revenue rose by 13.9% year-on-year to UAH584bn ($22.7bn) in January-July, which is 3.6% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally reported on August 2.
Net tax revenue rose 17.1% y/y to UAH253bn (2.5% above plan). Customs revenue climbed 0.9% y/y
to UAH181bn (9.6% below plan). Local budgets fiscal revenue improved 18.4% y/y to UAH157bn in January- July, which is 1.1% above plan. Social payments (pension and other social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 21.9% y/y to UAH155bn.
Ukraine's forex reserves in July 2019 grew by $1.2bn or 5.8%, to $21.84bn thanks to net purchase of currency
on the interbank currency market by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), according to preliminary data posted on the central bank's website.
Central Europe
Polish PMI fell to its lowest point since 2013, after Poland’s PMI fell 1 point to 47.4 in July, remaining below the 50-point line separating contraction from growth for the eighth month in succession, IHS Markit reports.
Hungary’s retail sales rose 4.3% y/y in June, up from 3% in May, which was the slowest growth seen since February last year, according to figures from the Central Statistics Office (KSH) posted on August 2. The working-day adjusted data showed sales growing by 5.2%. The rebound in June turnover was broad- based as all of the three main subsectors posted higher growth.
Hungary's seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slumped to 51.3 points in July from 54.1 in June, the lowest figure seen in three years, the Hungarian Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management (Halpim), which compiles the index, said on August 1. The figure is well below the 52.8 average for July.
The Czech unemployment rate dropped to 2.0% year on year in June and repeated its record low from February 2019, according to data
published by the Czech Statistical Office (CSU) on July 31. The general seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for people aged 15-64 went down in June by 0.4 percentage points (pp) year-on-year.
Southeast Europe
North Macedonia’s foreign trade defi- cit expanded 0.8% year on year in the first six months of 2019 to €926.7mn, according to preliminary data.
Serbia’s general government public debt stood at €23.56bn at end-June, 2.4% higher than the debt at end- 2018. The debt at end-June was equal to 51.4% of GDP.
Turkey’s official CPI inflation rose slightly to 16.65% in July from 15.72% in June. The market expectation was for around 16.9%. The end of tax breaks on consumer prices was a factor.
Eurasia
Foreign investments and loans com- mitted in Uzbekistan in the first half of 2019 stood at $5.6bn, registering
a fourfold increase on the same period in 2018. The figure consisted of $2.1bn in Uzbek government-guaranteed loans and $3.5bn in FDI. For the past two years Uzbekistan has been attempting to enact reforms to open the country
to foreign investment.
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