Page 15 - TURKRptMay20

Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.9
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-3.2
-2.9
-
-
USD/TRY (eop)
2.92
3.53
3.79
5.29
5.56
5.79
5.65
5.95
5.95
6.61
6.97
source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
The collapse in oil prices since March provided Ankara with a new story to legitimise the official inflation and current account data.
Some stories to explain why Turkey’s GDP growth has not collapsed in the official data will also no doubt be planted, but the only buyers will be some mainstream analysts, not investors.
i.e. The hygiene and personal health products market in Turkey has seen a boom in demand and is projected to triple in growth by year-end, Daily Sabah reported on April 3.
Turkey looks set to experience an economic contraction of 5% this year, following on from its recession-ailed 2019, according to the latest World Economic Outlook forecasting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—​released​ on April 14.
The IMF expects Turkey’s unemployment rate to climb to 17.2% this year.
The Fund also predicted Turkish average consumer price inflation of 12.0% for this year. Last year, the rate was officially 15.2%.
For Turkey’s current account balance in 2020, the IMF gave a figure of 0.4% of GDP .
In the worst case, the global economy would shrink by around 11% rather than 3% this year, it said.
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
The ​EBRD​: "Demand-side economic effects are likely to be larger in countries where retail services account for a greater share of GDP, as in Lithuania, Poland, Cyprus, Montenegro and Turkey.”
Payments made with credit cards and debit cards declined by 30.8% w/w to a value of Turkish lira (TRY) 13.6bn ($1.9bn) in the week ending March 27,
15​ TURKEY Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com