Page 53 - RusRPTOct19

Sberbank CIB said in a note that it expects the ruble to fluctuate around 66.5 against the dollar for the rest of the year and to average 67 in 2020. The risks for the ruble appear to have shifted to the downside, the bank said.
Since the second quarter of 2018, the market has at times priced in a more moderate risk of sanctions than the prevailing overly pessimistic view (in August-December 2018), while at other times it has almost brushed aside the risk (in 7m19). To some extent, the ruble now better reflects the fundamental risks it faces than at the beginning of the summer.
$/RUB sensitivity to oil could increase in 2020. This could happen if the oil price moves close to the so-called "base level" penciled in the budget or below it. In addition, we think potential support for the ruble is limited.
Additional pressure might emerge if the dollar continues appreciating globally. The effect of dollar strengthening has always been very important for the ruble's performance and was particularly so in August.
53 RUSSIA Country Report October 2019 ww.intellinews.com