Page 62 - RusRPTOct19

Sberbank, pref.
SBERP 1.2
Norilsk Nickel,
ord. GMKN 6.11
VTB, ord.* VTBR 1.24
UC Rusal,ord.
RUAL 0.73
Severstal, ord.
CHMF 1.66
MMK, ord.
MAGN 0.79
Surgutneftegas,
pref. SNGSP 2.19
MTSX, ord.
MTSS 2.29
Surgutneftegas,
ord. SNGS 2.12
Other 14
RTS Index
2.99
250 0.0007 0.4145
14.92 0.6211
0.5756 4.13
0.5353
1,331
4.75
286 0.0009 0.7233
20.29 0.956
0.8569 5.23
0.7345 1,746 1,561 1,746
59% 9
14% 12 29% 6 74% 7
36% 8 54% 6
49% 14 27% 8
37% 11
31% 35
17%
31% 415
Source: Bloomberg. VTB Capital Research; * provided by Bloomberg as of 4 September2019
X – Xtellus forecasts
Global problems growing
The mismatch between the outlook for the overall index and the outlook for the individual stories is reflected in the darkening outlook for the global economy in the next year. The chance of a global recession are rising quickly according to analysts as a series of pressures come together to push down growth and confidence.
PMI contracting: Currently, 17 out of 30 countries in the global PMI manufacturing index are in contraction territory. The global index is at its lowest level since October 2012. In the US, the PMI manufacturing index slipped into contraction for the first time since 2009. The Eurozone PMI manufacturing index has been in contraction territory since February, with Germany flirting with recession. Asian PMIs are also negative. The Chinese PMI data remains indecisive in spite of significant credit expansion over the past year or so, accompanied by a targeted fiscal expansion. The deterioration in global trade flows continues to accelerate, with global exports falling for a twelfth consecutive month as of August. The recent Chinese currency
62 RUSSIA Country Report October 2019 ww.intellinews.com