Page 4 - MEOG Week 19

MEOG Commentary MEOG
Iraq approves new government amid challenges from all sides
Iraq’s new government has been approved, bringing to an end a six-month deadlock.
IraQ
What:
Iraq’s parliament
has approved a new government, after a six- month deadlock.
Why:
There is an increased sense of political urgency, given the country’s unfolding economic crisis.
What next:
The government in baghdad plans to renegotiate contracts with IOCs, restore oil exports and get the support it needs from international financiers.
IraqI lawmakers have approved a new gov- ernment, ending a deadlock that has lasted half a year, at a time when the country faces an eco- nomic crisis exacerbated by the collapse in oil prices.
Former intelligence chief Mustafa al-Ka- dhimi will head the new government as prime minister, but will start his term without a full cabinet.
Political factions are still wrangling over the choices for Iraq’s ministries of oil and foreign affairs, with votes for these two posts having been delayed. The PM’s picks for ministers of justice, agriculture and trade have also been rejected.
“The security, stability and blossoming of Iraq isourpath,”Kadhimiwroteonsocialmediaafter the parliament approved his partially complete government.
Kadhimi said he would focus on tackling the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. There are already over 2,000 confirmed cases of the virus in Iraq and more than 100 lives have been lost. He has also pledged to hold to account the secu- rity forces, who killed more than 500 protestors in anti-government unrest in previous months.
Protestors began taking to the streets in Octo- ber 2019, demanding jobs and the departure of Iraq’s ruling elite, which they accuse of corrup- tion and economic mismanagement. The unrest led former Prime Minister abel abdul Mahdi, who led a caretaker government, to resign in November. Since then Iraq has been without a leader.
Street protests continued, and hundreds of thousands marched through Baghdad in Jan- uary calling for US troops to leave the country following the US drone strike on Iraqi territory against Iranian General qasem Soleimani. The attack led to a decisive shift in public opinion against Washington. Parliament later voted to end the US troop presence, but the decision is yet to be implemented.
Kadhimi is seen as independent from the political elite and also a pragmatist. He also ben- efits from being viewed as an acceptable choice to both the US and Iran. The PM told lawmak- ers on May 6 that his government would seek to “provide solutions, not add to the crises” Iraq is facing. But these crises are severe.
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic began
taking hold, Iraq was struggling with high unem- ployment and poor public services. The oil price rout in March, triggered by global travel restric- tions and other measures to slow the pandemic’s spread, made matters much worse.
Iraq relies on oil sales for 90% of its govern- ment revenues, meaning Kadhimi’s admin- istration will struggle to continue paying public sector wages. Iraq’s oil revenues shrank to $1.423bn in april, from $2.962bn in March and compared with average monthly revenues of $6.794bn in 2019.
Iraq is also in a dispute with the semi-auton- omous Kurdistan regional Government (KrG) over oil sales and the distribution of oil reve- nues,includingpaymentsofKrGsalariesbythe Iraqi federal government. The KrG has said it will take part in Iraq’s OPEC+ cuts, which will amount to 1.061mn barrels per day in May and June, capping Iraq’s oil output at 3.59mn bpd. The cuts will be eased gradually up until april 2022.
The World Bank estimates that Iraq’s GDP will shrink 9.7% this year, marking the econo- my’s worse performance since 2003.
There has also been a spike in Islamic State (IS) attacks, as insurgents look to take advan- tage of security forces being focused on the pandemic.
The spike in attacks coincides with the Islamic holy month of ramadan, when jihadists typically step up their activities; movement restrictions and economic pressures linked to the Covid-19 pandemic; constraints on the deployment of US troops connected to health and political issues; and the ongoing political wrangling over the new Iraqi government.
IS appears to be exploiting some or all of those factors in an attempt to stage a comeback. The group’s weekly publication, al-Naba, has
highlighted what it called the “downsizing” of the US presence in Iraq and “restrictions” on troop movements.
IS has also told militants that governments across the world are currently too preoccu- pied with battling the coronavirus to focus on counter-terrorism.
Priorities
Kadhimi has set out priorities for his government
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 19 13•May•2020