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                      land with the Russian Federation in one form or another​, according a poll published on Nov. 8 by the ​dt.ua​news site. Only 13.4% want the solution being pursued by the Russian government, which is being part of Ukraine with special status, and only 5.1% want to return to Ukraine as earlier, which is the solution that has been advocated by the Ukrainian government. ​ ​ ​ ​About 76% of the residents of occupied Donbas agree with the Russian narrative that the war is an “internal Ukrainian conflict,” with the Ukrainian and U.S. governments bearing full responsibility, according to the same poll. About 86% of respondents said they don’t believe the Russian government bears responsibility. Moreover, 64% of respondents said they believe the Ukrainian government should bear the full cost of renewing Donbas, while only 16% believe Russia should be responsible.​ ​ ​ ​Of all the political leaders, the residents of occupied Donbas most trust Russian President Vladimir Putin, or 11.2% of respondents. In second place was Russian television talk show host Vladimir Solovyov, who has the trust of 9.1% of residents. The third most common response was Donbas residents trusting no one, at 7.2%.
  3.0​ ​Macro Economy
   Business cycle indicators
     2008
   2009
   2010
   2011
 2012
     2013
   2014
   2015
   2016
 2017
     2018E
  2019E
 Real GDP, chg yoy
  2.3%
     -14.8%
      4.1%
      5.2%
      0.2%
      0.0%
      -6.6%
      -9.8%
      2.3%
    2.5%
    3.3%
    2.70%
   Household consumption, chg yoy
    11.8%
 -14.9%
 7.1%
 15.7%
 8.4%
 6.9%
 -8.3%
 -20.7%
 1.8%
7.8%
    8.9%
 4.90%
   Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
      1.6%
    -50.5%
    3.9%
    7.1%
    5.0%
    -6.7%
    -24.0%
    -9.2%
    20.1%
 18.2%
      14.3%
   7.00%
   Industrial output, chg yoy
      -5.2%
    -21.9%
    11.2%
    8.0%
    -0.7%
    -4.3%
    -10.1%
    -13.0%
    2.8%
 0.4%
      1.1%
   2.50%
   Nominal GDP, UAH bln
      948
    913
    1,079
    1,300
    1,405
    1,465
    1,587
    1,989
    2,383
 2,983
      3,559
   4,021
 Nominal GDP, USD bln
  180
     117
      136
      163
      176
      183
    134
    91
     93
    112
    131
    146
   GDP per capita, USD
    3,891
 2,550
 2,972
 3,580
 3,865
 4,030
 3,117
 2,134
 2,193
2,638
    3,077
 3,336
 CPI (eop)
  22.3%
     12.3%
      9.1%
      4.6%
      -0.2%
      0.5%
      24.9%
      43.3%
      12.4%
    13.7%
    9.8%
    7.10%
   CPI average
    25.2%
 15.9%
  9.4%
  8.0%
    0.6%
 -0.3%
12.1%
    48.7%
 13.9%
14.4%
    10.90 %
 8.20%
 Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
  6.9%
    9.6%
   8.9%
   8.7%
   8.2%
    7.8%
   9.7%
   9.5%
    9.7%
   9.9%
   9.1%
   8.00%
           Source: SP Advisors
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.2% year-on-year in
July-September​, which is higher that expected by the nation's central bank. According to the state statistics service Ukrstat, the growth rate stood at 4.6%
y/y in the second quarter, at 2.5% y/y in the first quarter.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) ​estimated recently​ the nation's GDP growth at 3.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, according to the NBU's inflation report published last week. According to the NBU's forecast, the growth of Ukraine's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019 will be 3.3% y/y.
In October, the regulator revised its economic growth forecast upwards, to 3.5% y/y in 2019 and 2020 and 4% y/y in 2021. "The revision was driven by the sustained domestic demand, higher productivity in agricultural production,
18​ UKRAINE Country Report​ December 201 ​ ​www.intellinews.com
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