Page 29 - UKRRptDec19

5.1​ External sector overview
Ukraine’s trade regime has changed radically this year with China surging up the rankings ​to become the country’s most important trade partner for both imports and exports.
Exports to China over the first nine months of this year were $2.6bn whereas imports were $6.6bn. Exports to Poland, which remains Ukraine’s second most important export market, were $2.5bn on a par with China, but the trade with Poland is much more balanced which sells Ukraine imports of $2.9bn.
The other important market is Russia which continues to account for just under 7% of Ukraine’s total trade. However, exports to Russia have fallen but still remain a significant $2.5bn while imports from Russia are second only to China at $5.4bn.
Ukraine’s goods trade deficit reached $1.2bn in September​, enlarging from $0.9bn in August, the State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report on November 14. The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to $0.80bn (shrinking slightly from a $0.88bn deficit in August) amid a 0.4% m/m drop in adjusted exports and 1.8% m/m decline in adjusted imports.
In September, goods exports swelled 11.6% y/y to $4.1bn (vs. a 6.2% y/y increase in August). In particular, grain exports jumped 45.6% y/y (vs. a 30.6% y/y jump in August). In addition, mineral product exports increased 11.9% y/y (vs. 30.6% y/y growth in September). In addition, machinery exports jumped 13.2% y/y (vs. a 5.6% y/y increase in August). At the same time, export of ferrous metals dropped 13.3% y/y (vs. a 14.6% y/y decline in August).
Goods imports grew 1.6% y/y to $5.3bn in September (vs. 6.1% y/y growth in August). Weak growth in exports was due to a 23.4% y/y decline in the value of exported energy products (vs. a 11.6% y/y decline in August). Machinery imports slowed to 8.8% y/y growth in September (from 21.8% y/y growth in August). Meanwhile, import of road vehicles and aircraft rose 27.8% y/y (vs. 26.3% y/y in August).
In 9M19, the merchandise trade deficit reached $7.1bn, swelling 8.4% y/y. Goods exports advanced 7.4% y/y to $37.1bn. Meanwhile, goods imports rose 7.5% y/y to $44.2bn.
Exports to the EU increased 6.8% y/y in 9M19, while EU imports advanced 8.3% y/y. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports amounted to 42.1% and 41.5%, respectively.
The significant decline of prices for energy products resulted in lower value of energy imports. This factor helped to keep the growth of the merchandise deficit in moderation.
The provisional customs statistics released this month promise that October's goods trade deficit will enlarge to around $1.3bn, mostly due to the higher value of imports.
Concorde Capital expect the 2019 goods trade deficit (according to UkrStat
29​ UKRAINE Country Report​ December 201 ​ ​www.intellinews.com