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5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
External 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 balance
2015 2016
2017 2018 E F
Exports (US$bn) 61.4 82.5 52.1 65.6 83.7 86.5 81.7 65.4 47.6 44.9 60.2 60.8
Imports (US$bn) 69.5 96.8 54 69.6 93.8 100.9 97.4 70 49 50.3 54.6 57.2
Trade balance -8.1 -14.4 -2 -4 -10.1 -14.3 -15.6 -4.6 -1.5 -2.9 -5.3 -6.4 (US$bn)
Trade balance -5.7 -7.8 -1.7 -2.9 -6.2 -8.2 -8.7 -3.5 -1.6 -5.8 -4.4 -5.9 (% of GDP)
Source: ICU
Grain exports through September are up 44% in volume, to 40mn tons, and up 42.5% in revenue, to $6.8bn, reports the Institute of Agrarian Economy. The top buyer is Egypt, which increased purchases by 75% y/y to nearly $1bn. After Egypt, buyer of 14% of Ukraine grain exports, the next top buyers are: China -- 10%; Spain -- 7.5%; Turkey --7%; the Netherlands -- 7%; Indonesia -- 5%; Bangladesh – 4%; Israel, Tunisia and Italy -- 3% each.
Five months into the grain marketing year, Ukraine has exported 24.4mn tons, 35% more than this time last year. During the last July 1-June 30 marketing year, Ukraine exported 50mn tons of grain.
A European Union plan to curb imports of poultry meat from Ukraine cleared the final political hurdle on November 26. The European Parliament voted on Tuesday to include chicken breasts that have wing bones attached in an EU duty-free import quota for boneless versions of the meat from Ukraine. The Strasbourg, France-based EU assembly also endorsed a parallel plan to raise the overall quota by 50,000 metric tons. The moves mark a compromise between extending EU trade preferences to Ukraine and protecting the bloc’s own poultry producers from a surge in EU imports of Ukrainian bony chicken breasts, which have faced no restrictions. Under the revised system, EU imports from Ukraine in excess of the duty-free quota will be subject to a levy of €100.8 ($111.12) per 100 kilograms. The new regime still needs the final approval of EU governments -- a step that’s usually a formality. EU imports of bony chicken breasts from Ukraine rose 15- fold to 55,500 tons -- or €91.4mn -- last year compared with 2016, according to the 28-nation Parliament and the European Commission. In 2016 and 2017, Ukraine accounted for 1.1% of total EU poultry imports, according to the commission, the bloc’s executive arm.
September imports of machinery were up 16% y/y, to $365mn. But an Alfa-Ukraine analysis sees feeble industrial investment. Cars accounted for one third. Solar panels and wind power turbines accounted for another third. Refrigerators accounted for $6mn. Only $27mn – or 7% -- went to machinery for oil and gas drilling, seed crushing and wood processing.
Since the grain marketing year started July 1, grain and bean exports are up 40% to 21mn tons, the Agriculture Ministry reported Monday. For the full
35 UKRAINE Country Report December 201 www.intellinews.com
