Page 15 - IRANRptJun20

estimated 13.6%, 16.3% and 16.7% of GDP, respectively.
The IMF said its latest forecasts were highly uncertain and that the risks were that the economic cost of the pandemic for all assessed countries could turn out to be worse than currently envisaged. Recovery would rely on stimulus measures proving effective in forestalling widespread company bankruptcies, limiting job losses and easing financial strains. The WEO modelled three alternative scenarios: a 2020 lockdown lasting 50% longer than it is forecasting; a mild recurrence of the virus in 2021; and a protracted pandemic and longer containment effort in 2020, as well as a recurrence in 2021. In the worst case, the global economy would shrink by around 11% rather than 3% this year, it said.
Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s economic counsellor, said the global economy was suffering a crisis “like no other”.
She added: “It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago. ‘The Great Lockdown’, as one might call it, is projected to shrink global growth dramatically.”
4.0​ Real Economy
Iran - Main Macro Indicators
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual GDP (y/y)
-6.6 -1.9 4.3 4.4 13.4 3.8 -4.9
GDP (per capita) (USD)
7,719.77 7,931.07 6,007.46 5,579.25 4,899.68 5,230.19 5,494.06
GDP: Final consumption expenditure: Private (IRR bn)
3,208,428 4,505,167 5,262,427
5,656,000
6,236,000
7,032,000
3,899,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Final consumption expenditure: Government (IRR bn)
713,990 868,334
1,160,266
1,301,000
1,700,000
1,952,000
1,134,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation, (IRR bn)
1,809,515 2,386,025 3,048,276
2,606,000
2,552,000
2,885,000
1,578,000 (Q1-Q2)
GDP: Exports, (lRR bn)
473,222 376,386 376,240 421,236 / /
GDP: Imports, (IRR bn)
449,701 345,821 281,210 265,210 / /
Source: CEIC; Central Bank of Iran
4.1​ Industrial production
Startups offered IRR4bn in loans from Iran’s Presidential Innovation and Prosperity Fund
Iran’s Presidential Innovation and Prosperity Fund is to provide startups with coronavirus-aid loans of up to IRR4bn (€23,000 at the free market rate) at a 9% interest rate, ITMEN reported on May 11.
Many small enterprises in Iran have been dealt a heavy blow in recent months with the country’s US sanctions-hit economy further stressed and diminished by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Ali Vahdat, CEO of the fund, said: "This [funding] will [specifically] help companies active in the field of manufacturing-related equipment and supplies,
15​ IRAN Country Report June 2020 www.intellinews.com