Page 4 - IRANRptJun20
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1.0 Executive summary
Fears that Iran is experiencing a second surge of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections amid the relaxation of lockdown restrictions intensified on May 14 as new data showed that the country’s number of cases has spiked by 40% in the past week. Iranian Ministry of Health spokesman Kianush Jahanpour said live on IRINN that Iran on May 13 recorded 1,808 new cases to take the total of officially logged infections to 114,533. The latest number of COVID-19 deaths was 6,854 (up 71 on the day). A total of 90,539 people were listed as having recovered from their infection, according to Jahanpour.
Moreover, Iran’s economy has been battered by US sanctions since Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the nuclear deal in May 2018 and switched back to a heavy sanctions regime. The Iranian rial (IRR) has dropped around fourfold against major currencies.
Switzerland’s special financial channel for humanitarian trade with Iran (SHTA) has been earmarked as the route that Tehran would use to secure urgent funding amounting to $5bn from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan, President.ir website announced on May 26. However, there is as yet no sign that the US will refrain from using its veto to stop such funding going to the Islamic Republic, despite the difficulties Iran faces in addressing its coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. The Trump administration officials claim that Iran’s ruling regime cannot be trusted to spend all of the money on humanitarian needs.
On the political front, the US has essentially scrapped the last remnants of its cooperation with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by ending sanctions waivers that allow Russian, Chinese and European companies to engage in civilian nuclear cooperation with Iran. The move puts the five countries—France, Germany, the UK, Russia and China—that along with Iran remain signed up to the accord in a tough spot. Continuing with the cooperation risks invoking US sanctions, but ending it may place them in breach of the nuclear deal (formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA).
Tehran described the US move announced on May 27 as "desperate."
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran stated that the US Trump administration had made the move in a bid "to distract public opinion from its continued defeats at the hands of Iran".
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released on April 14, Iran will this year suffer a GDP contraction of 6%. Warning that the “Great Lockdown” brought about around the world by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic would cause the worst recession experienced internationally since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the IMF said Iran was inevitably in for another tough year following last year’s estimated 7.6% decline in economic output, although it added that the country might achieve growth of 3.1% in 2021.
Previous forecasting from the World Bank that Iran might at least see a GDP stagnation of 0.0% in 2020 came before the coronavirus health and economic
4 IRAN Country Report June 2020 www.intellinews.com
