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3.2 Macro outlook
Dragon Capital downgrades Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 4.6% to 3.5%. Investment company Dragon Capital CEO Tomas Fiala says this is due to unexpectedly worse-than-expected preliminary GDP data for the second quarter of this year. Surprisingly, wholesale trade fell to 5.7% in the first half of the year from 3.0% in the first quarter. In mid-July, the investment company had already lowered the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy this year – from 5.3% to 4.6%. Next year's estimate of real GDP growth remains unchanged at 4.3%.
The President’s office estimates Ukraine’s GDP at 3.8 in 2021. The Deputy Head of the President's Office Yulia Svyrydenko said: "We expect that a full-fledged economic recovery will take place during this and subsequent years. This year we forecast the growth [of GDP] at the level of 3.8%." She noted a recovery in private consumption and external demand. The Ministry of Economy has confirmed its growth forecast for 2021 at 4.1%, while the National Bank expects the GDP growth at 3.8%.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Ukraine’s industrial output increased 0.6% year on year in August, accelerating from 0.2% y/y growth in July, the State Statistics Service reported on September 22. Seasonally adjusted output declined 0.6% month on month in August.
In 8M21, industrial output expanded by 1.7% y/y (vs. a 6.5% y/y decline in 8M20).
15 UKRAINE Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com