Page 34 - UKRRptOct21

6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
Budget and debt indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
State budget revenues, UAH bln
231.7
209.7
240.6
314.6
346
339.2
357.1
534.6
616.3
793.4
928.1
1053
% of GDP
24.4%
23.0%
22.3%
24.2%
24.6%
23.2%
22.5%
26.9%
25.9%
26.6%
26.1%
26.2%
State budget expenditures, UAH bln
244.2
245.2
304.9
338.1
399.4
403.9
435.1
579.8
686.4
841.3
987.4
1121
% of GDP
25.8%
26.8%
28.3%
26.0%
28.4%
27.6%
27.4%
29.2%
28.8%
28.2%
27.7%
27.9%
State budget balance, UAH bln
-12.5
-35.5
-64.3
-23.6
-53.4
-64.7
-78
-45.2
-70.1
-47.9
-59.3
-68.4
% of GDP
-1.3%
-3.9%
-6.0%
-1.8%
-3.8%
-4.4%
-4.9%
-2.3%
-2.9%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-1.7%
Public debt, UAH bln
189
318
432
473
516
584
1,101
1,572
1,930
2142
2169
2410
% GDP
20.0%
34.8%
40.1%
36.4%
36.7%
39.9%
69.4%
79.0%
81.0%
71.8%
60.9%
59.9%
Source: SP Advisors
According to the Minister of Finance of Ukraine, Sergii Marchenko, the 2022 State Budget is an Investment in Person, Country, and Future. The total resource of the State Budget-2022 is UAH 1,465.7 bln ($54.9 bln) which is an additional UAH 161.7 bln ($6 bln) in comparison to 2021. The priorities of the State Budget-2022 are:
● ensuring a quality level of medicine and education;
● creating an inclusive educational environment and barrier-free space;
● support for veterans;
● strengthening the defense capability and security of the state; and
● development of infrastructure;
Ukraine cabinet drafts 2022 budget with 3.5% of GDP deficit. Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers approved the 2022 draft budget on September 15 and submitted it to parliament. General budget revenues are planned to increase 14.5% y/y to UAH1,267bn, while budget outlays are set to increase 7.2% y/y to 1,442bn. The budget deficit is targeted at 3.5% of GDP, or UAH188bn. The draft assumes real GDP growth at 3.8% y/y, consumer inflation at 7.2% y/y and the expected year-end exchange rate of UAH28.60/USD.
The government aims to reduce the state debt to 57.6% of GDP in 2022, from 64.7% initially planned for 2021. Gross receipts from foreign borrowing are expected at UAH125.6bn and from domestic borrowing UAH420.0bn. The redemption of state foreign and domestic debt in 2022 are estimated at UAH72.4bn and UAH321.0bn, respectively. Privatization receipts are set at UAH8bn. The servicing of state foreign and domestic debt will require UAH60.6bn and UAH120.8bn, respectively.
The decline of the state budget deficit from a planned 5.5% of GDP in 2021 is a good development. Earlier this year Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko noticed that the state deficit at 3.5% of GDP is what the IMF wants to see for 2022. Therefore, it looks like that at the very start of the budget procedure the government wants to make the budget parameters to be in line with IMF guidance.
34 UKRAINE Country Report October 2021 www.intellinews.com