Page 27 - RusRPTApr19

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-2018 Indicators
Annual GDP (y/y, %)
3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5 1.5
GDP (per capita) (USD)
14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,759 10,743 /
GDP: Private consumption expenditure (USD mn)
1,116,950 1,214,990 1,111,244 720,256 680,455 826,389 207,035
GDP: Public consumption expenditure (USD mn)
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation (USD mn)
391,097 425,831 375,081 244,282 236,063 283,696 79,723
471,337 496,982 428,573 276,240 280,350 342,294 58,303
GDP: Exports (USD mn)
524,697 527,266 497,834 343,543 285,772 357,816 102,956
GDP: Imports (USD mn)
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
317,177 314,967 286,669 182,719 182,347 227,502 54,820
Russia's industrial output growth surged to 4.1% year-on-year in February, after 1.1% posted in January, according to the most recent data by Rosstat agency.
In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms industrial output grew by 1.2% month-on-month in February and 2.6% y/y in January-February overall.
Sberbank CIB sees the February industry growth as "healthy", with mining and manufacturing being the main growth drivers. Mining and quarrying added 5.1% y/y in February, albeit the growth rate slowed for all the main components.
Extraction of oil and gas we up by 3.5% and 4.7% y/y, respectively, while coal output was down by 0.2%. "The OPEC+ deal and Russia's commitment to it will likely ensure slow production growth in this segment over the rest of the year," the bank forecasts. Russia’s oil and gas shares are also the worst performing this year, up only 7% last week YTD compared to 12% for the overall market and 16% for financials. Oil stocks outperformed in 2018 on the back of recovering oil prices.
In the meantime, manufacturing saw a "remarkable upturn in February", expanding 4.6% y/y versus a 1% decline seen in January. Such components as construction materials, metals, food products and machinery all posted strong y/y growth in February, also supported by an extra working day as compared to 2018.
Sberbank CIB now expects industrial production to pick up in 2H19 "thanks to increased government spending and reach 3% for the full year."
27 RUSSIA Country Report April 2019 www.intellinews.com