Page 11 - GEORptJul19

3.0 Macro Economy
Georgia - Main Macro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Indicators
2018* Q1 2019
GDP real growth (y/y, %)
6.4 3.4 4.6 2.9 2.8 4.8 4.7 4.9
GDP (per capita, $) 3,523.4 3,599.6 3,676.2 3,766.6 3,864.6 4,078.5 4,415 981.0
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, (GEL mn)
23,733.2 23,671.8 25,570.7 27,318.7 28,241.5 30,630.6 32,652.8 8,200.6
GDP: Gross capital formation, (GEL mn)
7,575.4 6,652.9 8,688.8 10,004.3 11,136.5 12,264.8 13,675.7 2,693.8
GDP: Exports, (GEL mn)
9,982.9 11,997.9 12,518.3 14,206.8 14,837.8 19,023.7 22,622.8 5,244.8
GDP: Imports, (GEL mn)
15,124.2 15,475.2 17,627.3 19,774.3 20,187.5 23,559.0 27,385.8 6,394.0
Source: bne IntelliNews, CEIC
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Georgia’s GDP expands 5.1% y/y in April
IMF completes fourth review under EFF in Georgia, to disburse $41.6mn
Georgia’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.1% y/y in April compared to the 4.7% average seen in Q1, according to a rapid estimate put out by statistics office Geostat. The average for the first four months of the year was given as 4.8%. The central bank in Tbilisi has said it expects 5.0% growth across the whole year.
Over the past two years, Georgia’s economy has advanced by 4.7%-4.8% per year, driven by the outstanding performance of tourism-related segments, with notable advances also in trade, real estate, transport and financial intermediation.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) stuck to its Georgia GDP growth forecast of 4.5% in 2019 in its latest economic outlook, released in May.
The main positive growth development seen this year to date is the improvement in foreign trade with goods. Specifically, in the first four months exports increased by 17.9% y/y to $1.13bn, while imports contracted by 3.1% y/y to $2.73bn. The trade gap remains very wide. Part of it is covered by rising incomes generated by tourism (recorded in export of services), but the net import of goods remains a vulnerability for Georgia’s economy.
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team on May 13 announced that it has reached a staff-level agreement with the authorities of Georgia on completing a fourth review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme sealed with the country in 2017.
The IMF executive board is expected to consider the review in June, when an SDR30mn ($41.6mn) tranche will be disbursed to Georgia, bringing total disbursements to $210mn out of the total $285mn envisaged under the EFF.
11 GEORGIA Country Report July 2019 www.intellinews.com