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March 22, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 6
Nazarbayev’s daughter Dinara Kulibayeva shares control of the country’s largest bank by assets, Halyk Bank, with her husband Timur Kulibayev, who himself has been seen as the potential next president.
Rumours circulating online among opposition- minded journalists and ordinary Kazakhs have largely focused on Nazarbayev’s great nephew, Samat Abish, the son of Nazarbayev’s nephew Bolat Satybaldy. A youtube channel run by Kazakh opposition journalists in-exile, Aydos Sadykov and Natalia Sadykova, posited earlier today that that the appointment on March 18 of the new pros- ecutor general, Gizat Nurdauletov, was a move in Abish’s favour. Nurdauletov is supposedly a close associate of Abish’s father. Labelling Abish a “Kazakh Putin”, the Sadykovs argue that Dariga’s and Kulibayev’s clans may not find his candidacy favourable and suggest that Nazarbayev made Karim Massimov as chief of the National Security Committee (KNB) in 2017 in order to guarantee Abish’s smooth transition to the presidency.
That theory echoes that of other analysts who in 2017 wrote that Massimov was given control over the state security services to secure an emulation of the Uzbek succession model. The Uzbek case saw security services head Rustam Inoyatov help bring current Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev to power following the death of Karimov.
Samat Abish has served as the deputy chief of the KNB since 2015.
The accuracy of the rumours and speculation circulated by Kazakh journalists and experts will be tested in 2020, when the country is scheduled to hold a presidential election.
Nazarbayev’s (un)popularity
Nazarbayev is publicly relinquishing the throne at a time when the country is still deep in conversa- tion about public protests that broke out across Kazakhstan in February as demonstrators com-
plained about quality of life issues facing Kazakh citizens. Ordinary Kazakhs have generally not been able to feel the benefits of the recovering Kazakh economy. The protests, some of which were met with crackdowns, led Nazarbayev to demonstratively sack the Kazakh government, replacing the cabinet with others loyal to him.
The move was accompanied by a statement in which he blamed the cabinet for failing to reduce the Kazakh economy’s over-reliance on com- modities exports or improve the livelihoods of Kazakh citizens. The statement claimed the new government would focus on improving the lives of Kazakhs, and social programmes would be implemented to raise the quality of life and sup- port low-income citizens and socially vulnerable groups. Regional development policy would be “drastically” revised, it promised.
Nazarbayev subsequently ordered the Kazakh government on February 27 to tap into the na- tional ‘rainy day’ fund for $3.6bn to boost public sector salaries and social aid and develop housing and infrastructure.
The recent protests did not go unnoticed it seems. The European Parliament issued new resolution on March 14 urging the Kazakh government to "re- spect human rights and fundamental freedoms".
Kazakhstan has been attempting to diversify its economy away from oil export-dependence in the past year by betting on foreign investment, most of which has come from China. The big opening up of Uzbekistan following the death of Karimov may have also played a role in making Kazakh officials hurry to enact their own investor-friendly reforms and attempt to attract foreign companies.
Karimov’s death left Nazarbayev as the only re- maining leader who came to power in the USSR before it collapsed. As Nazarbayev officially re- signs, the era of former Soviet presidents comes to an end.