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bne December 2018
Opinion 51
the non-commercial implications of the delicate NordStream2 project. France legitimizes its demands for a European army with the need to protect itself against great powers, including Russia. Indeed, following fresh outrages such as the attempt to kill ex-spy Sergei Skripal and the controversial elections for new governments in the breakaway regions in Donbas, if anything, there are calls for even more sanctions. In addition, the focus has increased on Russia's supposed interference in political agendas in the EU or in (potential) EU candidates in the Balkans.
In this respect, it is not surprising that there are currently no more "sanction-loosening surveys" among market players. Many analysts seem to have underestimated the dominance of the status quo. And the status quo dominates in sanctions and on the ground in Eastern Ukraine. As things stands it seems increasingly likely that the west’s economic sanctions of on Russia are likely to remain in place at least for the average length of less successful western sanctions regimes (less suc- cessful in the sense of its original goals): at least 8-10 years, perhaps even much longer.
The Donbas elections annoyed the west, but the looming key presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine next year are a lot more serious and Russia is already suspected of meddling. As a result it seems likely that 2019 will also pass without any progress towards lifting sanctions.
It is therefore all the more interesting that 2019 could be a very decisive year.
Everything will depend on the outcome of the elections in Ukraine. If, for example, President Poroshenko is voted out
of office, there is at least an increased chance that Russia might be interested in a face-saving way out of the situation (spoiler alert: UN Mission for Eastern Ukraine). This is not at all impossible as according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) polls released on November 13 Poroshenko is in third place with a 10% approval rating versus frontrunner Yulia Tymoshenko’s 21%.
Russian president Vladimir Putin would love to make a name for himself as a "dealmaker" similar to the title Trump claims for himself. In such a scenario, it would be conceivable that the EU would once again seriously address the issue of lifting Russia's sanctions. Business lobbies across western Europe are extremely keen to see an end of sanctions as Russia remains a big and profitable market in Europe for them.
If there is some sort of deal between Russia and a new leadership in Ukraine then relations with the west will not be repaired as fast as the Kremlin made up with Ankara, following their recent diplomatic bust up in 2015 when Turkey shot down a Russian bomber over the Turkey-Syria border. Relations between Russia and Turkey were perhaps
“Everything will depend on the outcome of the elections in Ukraine”
even tenser than with Europe currently, but Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin are not encumbered with the same adherence to Europe’s liberal values as other leaders
to the west that allows for a lot more moral flexibility and opportunistic rapprochement.
The alienation between the EU states, the EU institutions
and Russia is much deeper than between Turkey and Russia. Moreover, the relationship between the "big and little" brother is much clearer in the Russian-Turkish relations than in the case of the EU and Russia.
All in all, 2019 could be a "test year" for Russia's willingness to find a face-saving way out of the Ukraine conflict. And
if not, then the western sanctions, including the ones by the EU, could probably remain in place well into the 2020s, perhaps even until 2029.
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Avast to enter London bourse in bid to raise up to $1bn Jaroslav Hroch in Prague
Avast, which owns the popular consumer antivirus company AVG, will apply to list its shares on the London Stock Exchange in the hope of raising $200mn (CZK4.1bn) in primary proceeds from an IPO, the Czech-founded company announced on April 12.
See page 2
St Petersburg's start-up scene flourishes on high talent and low costs
Contents
Avast to enter London bourse
in bid to raise up to $1bn 1 Avast to enter London bourse in bid to raise up to $1bn 2 St Petersburg's start-up scene
flourishes on high talent and low costs 3 Romania entrepreneur aims to put home-grown UAV defence technology industry on the map 6
FinTech
Russia's mobile major MTS increases stake in Ozon to 16.7% 9
Blockchain
Romanian startups at the heart
of blockchain energy trading rally 10
Central Europe
Russian-Lithuanian startup Gosu.ai
raises $1.9mn from Russian and
French investors 13
Eurasia
Iran hit by cyber attack that left US
flag on screens 14 Iranian government set to block hugely popular Telegram messaging app 15 Iran's black market phone disconnection drive pushes up legal mobile imports 15
Eastern Europe
Internet catches up with TV on Russian
ad market 17 Sales of connected appliances jump
in Russia 17 Russia's HeadHunter Group seeks
to raise $250mn with NASDAQ IPO 18 Russia ranks second in the world
for digital piracy 18 Russian messaging service Telegram raised another $850mn with ICO 19
Southeast Europe
Russia's HeadHunter Group seeks
to raise $250mn with NASDAQ IPO 20
The Regions This Month 21
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