Page 37 - Eastern Europe Outlook 2020

1.0​ ​Ukraine - Executive Summary
2020 will be a big year for Ukraine as there is a possibility that some sort of peace deal could be reached with Russia and the effects of the first round of reforms made by the new Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration start to kick in.
The new government was off to a fast start introducing a​ ​hectic legislative programme​ on its first day in office on August 29. Over 500 new laws were tabled with strict deadlines for at least draft versions to be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada in November, December and by January 1. More laws will be tabled during 2020 as Zelenskiy attempts to capitalise on his high popularity to get as many painful reforms through the Rada before his honeymoon is over.
Zelenskiy has two main items on his agenda: bring an end to the fighting in Donbas and raise income levels and kick start economic growth. And he made progress on both fronts in 2H19.
The Normandy Four (N4) process between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany restarted on December 9 with a meeting in Paris where Zelenskiy, who has no experience in international politics, purported himself well, securing a ceasefire and an expanded no-contact zone and agreeing an all-for-all prisoner swap before the end of 2019.
The new president needed to do two things at his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin: get some sort of concrete results that he can show to the Ukrainian people and not give too much away in concessions to Putin. He managed both.
Russia and Ukraine exchanged 203 prisoners on December 29, in, which 76 Ukrainian citizens – being held in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk – were traded for 127 Russian-aligned prisoners held in Ukraine. Four Ukrainian citizens reportedly declined to return, while 14 Russian-aligned prisoners also declined to return.
Among the Russian-aligned prisoners was a Brazilian citizen (Rafael Lusvarghi) fighting with the Russian-backed forces, five former police officers (with the liquidated Berkut special forces unit) suspected in the killings in the EuroMaidan protest of 2014, a suspect (Maksym Mysiak) in the murder of three Kharkiv businessmen in 2013-2014, and three suspects accused of organizing a terrorist attack in Kharkiv in February 2015 that killed four EuroMaidan supporters. Another 300 Ukrainian citizens remain imprisoned in Russia and Donbas, said Valeria Lutkovska, Ukraine’s representative to the humanitarian subgroup of the Trilateral Contact Group.
While the Paris meeting was an encouraging start and showed that both sides are willing to negotiate and make goodwill gestures, the substance of a final peace deal was put off until a second N4 meeting slated for April.
37​ EASTERN EUROPE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com