Page 59 - Eastern Europe Outlook 2020
P. 59
Key economic figures and forecasts
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 50.8 43.1 48.2 50.5 55.9 59 58.1
Real GDP (% yoy) -3.8 -2.5 2.5 3.1 1.5 1.8 1.5
Industrial output (% yoy) -6.6 -0.4 6.1 5.7 2.5 2 2
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 1 5.6 5.8 4.8 4 4.2 4.1
Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 8 9.1 19.6 20.7 10 7 7
Producer prices (avg, % yoy) 17.2 12 9.8 6.8 7 8 8
Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 13.5 12 6 4.9 5.7 6 6
Consumer prices (eop, % yoy) 12 10.6 4.6 5.6 5.5 6 6
General budget balance (% of 1.5 1.5 2.9 4 1.5 -1 -2.7 GDP)
Public debt (% of GDP) 36.5 39 39.3 35.2 33.4 33.6 33.2
Current account balance (% of -3.7 -3.6 -1.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -2.6 GDP)
Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 3.8 4.7 6.1 6.3 7 6.9 6.7
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 67.9 78.8 73.3 65.4 63.4 60.8 59.5
EUR/BYN (avg) 1.77 2.2 2.18 2.41 2.36 2.46 2.69
USD/BYN (avg) 1.6 1.99 1.93 2.04 2.09 2.18 2.3 Source: National sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
In 2020 Belarus faces several unknowns. The year got off to a dramatic start after Moscow and Minsk agreed on a new oil supply deal after Russia cut off oil supplies to Belarus for a week.
Despite the deal, which is worth about $11bn a year to Minsk, the bickering continues as Moscow is clearly intending to phase the energy subsidies that Belarus has enjoyed for year out in the coming years. Moscow and Minsk are like an old married couple: always arguing but usually come to some sort of agreement eventually. Moreover, the fiscal management in Minsk has improved and the government has been preparing for the showdown for well over a year.
“We expect fiscal policy to smooth the negative effect of the Russia oil tax manoeuvre. The manoeuvre could cost Belarus a solid slice of fiscal revenue, put some additional pressure on the Belarusian ruble and add to political noise in 2020, a pre-election year. However, we expect the constraining effect on real economic growth not to exceed 0.4 ppt in 2020 and 0.5 ppt pa for the next five years. We still see scope for positive surprises, if Belarus negotiates more compensation from Russia,” Renaissance Capital said in a report in
59 EASTERN EUROPE Outlook 2020 www.intellinews.com
