Page 66 - Eastern Europe Outlook 2020

Belarus Key indicators
Activity
Real GDP (% y/y)
Investment (% GDP) Unemployment rate year-end (%) Nominal GDP (BYNbn)
Nominal GDP ($bn)
Population (mn)
GDP per capita ($)
Stock of bank credit (BYNbn) Lending/GDP (%)
Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) Prices
CPI (average% y/y)
CPI (end-year% y/y)
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
State budget balance Consolidated budget balance
2015 2016 2017
-3.8 -2.5 2.5 29 26.5 28 0.9 1 0.8 89.9 94.9 105.7 56.3 47.7 54.7 9.5 9.5 9.5 5,941 5,022 5,757 21.6 20.6 23.5 24 21.7 22.3 25.8 23.1 26.3
13.5 11.8 6 12 10.6 4.6
1.7 1.1 2.6 1.8 1.3 2.8
2018 2019E
3.1 1.5 27.5 26.2 0.4 0.5 121.6 131.2 59.6 62.6 9.5 9.5 6,283 6,604 28.3 na 23.2 na 27.1 25.4
4.9 5.4 5.6 5
3.8 1.2 3.8 1.2
2020E
2.5 25.4 0.9 137.8 63.6 9.4 6,744 na na 22
4.8 4.5
-0.7 -1
66​ EASTERN EUROPE Outlook 2020​
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Belarus doesn't have an equity market or international listed companies (other than one software developer, but that identifies itself as an American company and is now headquartered in New York).
But it does have Eurobonds. Belarus’s fiscal position and national currency are likely to be somewhat weaker in 2020 thanks to the problems with Russia. But analysts have an overall positive outlook for Belarus.
“We maintain our recommendation to be market-weight Belarusian eurobonds. According to a recent government statement, new eurobond issues of no less than $1bn could be placed in 1Q20, and overall issuance for 2020 could amount to $1.35bn,” Rencap said.