Page 7 - Eastern Europe Outlook 2020

government’s proposal to spend no more than RUB585bn a year in the next three years via the Development Fund – an investment vehicle that will source its funding from the NWF’s surplus.
2.0​ ​Political outlook
The current mood of Russian society can be compared to clinical depression,​ one Russian sociologist thinks. Following two years of surveys across eight regions, sociologist Viktor Poturemsky published a report about the “new political reality” in Russia.
He claims that the public feels frustration at the lack of development and the degradation of their living standards. Many express a loss of faith in the authorities, in their ability to provide for their families, and in the idea of a “bright future”. This sinister and hopeless outlook on the future is characteristic of patients with clinical depression, Poturemsky argues.
Public dissatisfaction with Putin is clearly on the rise, as was illustrated by the protests over the summer of 2019 and the brutal police response. This is a concern for Putin but it is not yet a problem as the overall numbers taking part in these demonstrations are still in the thousands or a few tens of thousands, which is a level the Kremlin can dismiss and ignore. But the situation is getting worse slowly and the Kremlin needs to respond. In short the national projects programme that is supposed to transform the economy needs to work.
If the 2021 Duma elections were held tomorrow, just three parties would make​ it into parliament via party lists. The lack of plurality or representation is another problem. A study, conducted by the Institute for Social, Economic and Political Research, projects that United Russia will receive 42-45% of the vote on party lists — roughly the amount targeted by party secretary Andrei Turchak. The Communist Party and Liberal Democratic Party — which have received on average 18% and 12.5% of the vote, respectively, in elections over the past two years — would also enter the Duma.
While recent elections show that A Just Russia — the closest Russia comes to to a legitimate opposition — currently polls high enough at 7.7% to pass the 5% electoral threshold, its popularity has been declining. The report’s authors are unsure if the party will gain party list seats.
In recent years, the popularity of unrepresented and new political parties — such as Yabloko, the Green Party, and the Party of Pensioners — has grown, up from a statistical error in 2015 to 9% today. Yet these new parties lack access to administrative resources and have little electoral chances.
All in all Russia’s political scene remains as barren as ever.​ Putin remains in charge and the people have little influence on politics. The Kremlin’s biggest problem is the United Russia ruling party continues to lose legitimacy and is polling at its lowest level ever at around 34%. United Russia scraped into power at the last elections barely clearing the 50% threshold to take charge, but there is no way that the party can pull the same task off again without blatant vote rigging or a suitable crisis.
7​ EASTERN EUROPE Outlook 2020​ ​ ​www.intellinews.com