Page 56 - RUSRptSept18

6.2 Debt
Russia - Gross external debt 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017
Budget: gross debt (LC bn)
5,343 6,520 7,548 10,299 10,952 11,110 11,854
Budget: gross debt (% GDP)
10.9 11.8 13.1 15.6 15.9 12.9 12.6
source: Rosstat
Russia has one of the lowest debt levels of any major economy in the world and can cover its external sovereign debt dollar for dollar with a $450bn reserves cash pile.
It can well afford to borrow more, but Putin has always been very prudent, preferring to keep debt low and maintain budget surpluses. However, now it is clear that the petro-dollar driven model of growth is exhausted, and has been since 2013, Putin is prepared to ramp up the leverage a little in an effort to transform the economy.
“According to the plan state public debt will grow to 15% of GDP in 2019, 16% in 2020 and 16.6% in 2021, which would be still a relatively low number. Still these projections are based on rather conservative GDP growth but optimistic RUB outlook and inflation. In particular GDP growth would be expected to go up from 1.4% in 2019 to 3.1% in 2021 while CPI inflation would stay within a 3.8% to 4.3% area,” said Raiffeisen Bank's Gintaras Shlizhyus in a note.
7.0 FX
RUSSIA -FX
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
Currency (units per EUR) (eop)
76.54
71.21
70.88
63.81
60.60
67.50
68.45
68.87
Currency (units per USD) (eop)
67.61
64.26
63.16
60.66
56.38
59.09
58.02
57.60
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
82.32
74.38
72.15
68.13
63.27
62.88
69.22
68.81
Currency (units per USD) (average)
74.59
65.88
64.62
63.07
58.82
57.14
59.00
58.41
56 RUSSIA Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com