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Eurasia
April 12, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 21
Kazakhstan’s June 9 snap election: three scenarios
Nizom Khodjayev in Astana
Kazakhstan’s Interim President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev on April 9 called a snap presidential election to be held on June 9.
The country has no tangible opposition in reality with the ruling party Nur Otan (“Radiant Fatherland”) Democratic People’s Party holding absolute pow- er. “Leader of the Nation” for life Nursultan Naz- arbayev, who was at the helm of Kazakhstan for three decades until he suddenly stepped down last month, handed his presidential title to Tokayev until the of- ficial end of his term in 2020, but essentially kept his hands on the key levers of power behind the scenes.
Nazarbayev’s move was interpreted by bne IntelliNews as the beginning of the real power transition process. The elections are expected to be rigged in favour of that successor, who will be announced at the next party congress of Nur Otan on April 26 in Nur-Sultan (the capital was lately renamed from Astana in honour of Nazarbayev).
The successorship question in Kazakhstan has been discussed for a very long time but analysts and rumour-mongers alike have narrowed the list of potential candidates.
Dariga Nazarbayeva
Within Nur Otan itself there are only two individu- als who appear to be viable candidates for the presidency. They are Tokayev and Nazarbayev’s 55-year-old daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva. No an- nouncement has been made indicating Tokayev’s true prospects, but the news flow around Dariga on April 9 was full of contradictory reports.
Prominent news website Tengrinews.kz reported that Dariga would not be taking part in the presidential race, citing Dariga’s assistant Saule Mustafayeva. Other news outlets, including Nur.kz, cited Dariga stating directly that the Nur Otan candidate will be chosen at the party congress, without either denying
or confirming she has a prospect of success.
Samat Abish
Rumours circulating online among opposition- minded journalists and ordinary Kazakhs have largely focused on Nazarbayev’s great nephew, 40-year- old Samat Abish, the son of Nazarbayev’s nephew Bolat Satybaldy. A Youtube channel run by Kazakh opposition journalists in-exile, Aydos Sadykov
and Natalia Sadykova, posited earlier on April 10 that that the appointment on March 18 of the new prosecutor general, Gizat Nurdauletov, was a move in Abish’s favour. Nurdauletov is supposedly a close associate of Abish’s father. Labelling Abish a “Ka- zakh Putin”, the Sadykovs argue that the Dariga and Kulibayev clans —Timur Kulibayev, husband of Naz- arbayev’s second daughter Dinara Kulibayeva, whom he shares control of the country’s largest bank, Halyk, with, was once seen as the potential next president of Kazakhstan — may not find his candidacy favourable.
Tokayev himself?
Some Kazakh analysts are suggesting that Tokayev himself may run to become permanent president. However, such an outcome would be completely counterintuitive to those expecting a successor to emerge from backstage, especially considering To- kayev’s age. The 65-year-old can hardly be expected to lead the nation for another 30 years. It would also not conform to the tribal component of Kazakh poli- tics, which has dominated Kazakhstan up to this day.
If his candidature is announced, this could mean one of two things. Either Nazarbayev is still postponing the successor question—an unlikely possibility—or the president’s post no longer holds the importance it once did. The latter case would make sense in the light of weakening of the presidential powers in favour of lawmakers and the cabinet in March 2017.
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