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Opinion
April 12, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 24
settlement of trade disputes valued by a large group of countries, who fear crude power politics could enter the game in international trade relations and signal a return to a less benign international order. In short: Washington has thrown the WTO into an existential crisis.
The panellists clearly had the US cases in
mind. The 137-page panel report delves into
the history of the security exception when it was under negotiation in the 1940s and led to Article XXI of the GATT. The report shows that the US administration at the time was split over the clauses’ merits. The defence community in the US wanted the security exception to be absolute and the GATT dispute settlement mechanism not to be allowed to adjudicate any cases related to security. The US diplomatic community for its part argued that such a carve-out would mean the whole multilateral system would not be able to function. The latter won the argument at the time.
It’s not clear yet how the current disputes on the US steel measures will pan out. If the panellists choose to refer to the Russia-Ukraine case – nothing requires them to do so — “the panels will likely require the US to show, objectively,
the existence of an “emergency in international relations,” explains Robert McDougall, the director of Cadence Global, an international trade consultancy.
“If this panel report is followed, then the US will have a hard time to show instability — war is out of the question. If they manage to do that then it will be an easy ride for the US,” reckons Petros Mavroidis, a law professor at Columbia University.
Russia will likely live with the panel decision.
It is not clear yet if Ukraine will appeal the case – a decision is expected after the presidential elections in the coming weeks in Kyiv. For
all its frustrations about blocked exports to Central Asia: it will need to consider its broader relationships with Russia, as well as whether
it wants to rock the boat with the WTO and potentially provoke the US.
This article first appeared in the premium section of Borderlex, a publication that specialises in inter- national trade issues.
Wither Kazakhstan with Professor Alexey Malchenko
Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev surprised everyone and no one by stepping down from office last month after nearly three decades in power. We are now in a transition phases where Nazarbayev eases himself out of office, but clearly he intends to remain fully in control of the process.
On April 9 a snap presidential election was called that will be held in June and is likely to confirm interim Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as the permanent head of the country.
What is not clear is what happens next? Will be continue Kazakhstan’s policies? Will he strike out in a new direction? Will he go after regional integration?
bne IntelliNews editor-in-chief Ben Aris talks to Professor Alexey Malashenko, the Chief Researcher at Dialogue of the Civilizations in Moscow, about that could happen next.
Professor Alexey Malashenko,
the Chief Researcher at Dialogue of the Civilizations
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