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Opinion
March 8, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 22
Third, it is significant that DASKAA 2.0 seeks
to examine the finances of oligarchs and other individuals who form Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. In the event that light is shed on the murky interests of the Russian ruling elite,
this could have implications for social stability, firing anticorruption protests particularly on the regional level. With such information, the USA could further thought also actively enter into the "intelligence war".
More generally, DASKAA 2.0 reinforces the likelihood that sanctions will not be relaxed for the foreseeable future. It is possible that the Trump administration, having seen many of its more hawkish ‘moderates’ resign in the second half of 2018, will not act on them. However, the political will to deepen the sanctions toolbox is very
much present. Whether it is in 2-3 or 5-6 years, Washington will likely have a wide range of tools available if there are changes in the dynamics of US domestic policy or the White House itself.
These tools send the signal to rival powers that the US is the dominant global economic power, fully capable of choking off the funds which a state like Russia may use to fund its foreign policy.
However, in practice, neither side has much inter- est in changing the state of affairs. Russia will con- tinue to embrace isolation and its stability-oriented economic policies, which include a careful retreat from global markets and integration. A lengthy period of stagnation is likely. Socioeconomic con- ditions in the regions will continue to deteriorate, but the state apparatus, with a mix of coercion and fiscal transfers, will hold the line here, albeit at a cost it increasingly cannot afford. At the same time, the public discourse in Russia also tries to portray the USA as a "stagnating economy" of the "middle class losers". The latter also explains international demonstrations of US power (incl. sanctions) according to this train of thought.
An indicator of escalation within Russia would be the delicate melange mixing economic stagnation with further US sanctions initiatives targeting the finances of the ruling elite. This would likely have implications for social and political stability; but
it would be a slow-burning scenario, like the US sanctions themselves. DASKAA 2.0 shows that the US and Russia are engaged in a long-game. In this respect, the relaxed market attitude towards further sanctions and their overall slow-burning nature are perhaps unsurprising.