Page 21 - IRANRptAug21

5.0 External Sector & Trade
5.1 Balance of payments and current account
5.1.1 current account dynamics
Iran’s current account balance likely at -0.5% of GDP in 2020, says IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in its updated World Economic Outlook in October that Iran’s current account balance as a percentage of GDP would likely be at the 1.1%, -0.5% and 0.3% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively, as a result of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
The IMF estimated that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves in March last year. It also indicated that Iran ran a current account surplus of $1.12bn. The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
But the IMF also noted that Tehran was having difficulty accessing some of its reserves as its relations with foreign banks were constrained by the threat of US sanctions. Meanwhile, sanctions could cut the current account surplus sharply given the severe disruption they are causing to trade.
21 IRAN Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com