Page 6 - IRANRptAug21

2.0 Politics
2.1 Raisi’s presidency means no transformational reform
for Iran in near future says Chatham House analyst
The election of conservative Ebrahim Raisi as president of Iran has driven home a harsh fact for the international community: the Islamic Republic will not be undergoing its long hoped for transformational reform in the near future. So writes Sanam Vakil, deputy director and senior research fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme in a “pragmatist’s guide to dealing with a more conservative Tehran”.
Raisi’s presidency starts with his inauguration on August 5. It solidifies conservative control over Iran’s elected institutions and unelected organisations under the purview of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Vakil advises that “the international community must be realistic about what it can and cannot expect from Raisi and the conservative Iranian political system” and notes that “After losing the election, reformists now need to develop a bolder, more effective vision for Iran or risk becoming irrelevant”. She adds: “Iran’s reformist project has reached a dead end. The roller coaster of President [Hassan] Rouhani’s eight-year tenure has led to political apathy among Iranians. They have not had an easy ride.
“The euphoria that followed the signing of the JCPOA [nuclear deal] in 2015 has been replaced with frustration. Iranians have endured economic policy failures, international sanctions – and a bruising American withdrawal from the action plan under former President [Donald] Trump.
“Rouhani’s campaign promises – to boost the economy, address women’s rights and improve the environment – went largely unmet. The government used a heavy hand to repress protests in December 2017 and November 2019.”
Having survived US pressure, Iran’s conservative political establishment has been emboldened, says Vakil, adding: “With the Supreme Leader Khamenei’s advanced age of 83, this [conservative drive to assert control within the state] is seen as ever more urgent. The opaque process of choosing his successor has most probably already begun.”
The conservative shift, says Vakil, should not stop western policymakers talking to Tehran as “closing the door to engagement will only create further tensions”.
With sanctions still in place, Raisi will have no choice but to prioritise the economy, Vakil concludes, saying: “Providing relief to ordinary Iranians who have borne the economic pain of the past few years is the swiftest way for the Raisi government to forge stronger internal bonds after the low voter turnout. “That can be most quickly achieved by securing the lifting of sanctions through a revival of the JCPOA talks. This would allow Tehran to resume oil exports and access its frozen foreign reserves. It would also provide Raisi with an easy economic win that could reduce inflationary pressure, inject capital into the economy and cut the unemployment rate.
6 IRAN Country Report August 2021 www.intellinews.com