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Opinion
January 12, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 20
to dismiss the government; leave ministers in office following a prime minister’s resignation; or leave his ally prime minister Andrej Babiš in office, rather than dissolve parliament if all three constitutionally allowed attempts at forming a government were exhausted.
Polls suggest, however, that Zeman, who has been picking up support since the launch of the December billboard, has a solid base of support predominantly among poorer, older, more left- wing, less well-educated Czechs. He is likely to top the first-round poll by a clear margin with 43- 44% of the vote, but may face a stiffer contest in the second, run-off round on 26-27 January.
As in the first direct presidential elections in 2013, Zeman faces eight challengers. However, this year political parties have taken a back seat. Many have realised that they simply lack a broad enough appeal or any credible enough candidates to have a serious run at the presidency.
The one party that could have done so, Babiš’s ANO movement – said at one time to have considered running the popular defence minister (now foreign minister) Martin Stropnický for presidency – chose not to do so: for Babiš keeping to his informal pact with Zeman and getting into government were by the important priorities. If, as expected, his new minor- ity administration loses its upcoming parliamentary vote of confidence, Zeman will play a key role by re- nominating Babiš as prime minister for a second, and probably decisive, effort a forming a government.
All of but two of Zeman’s challengers are thus non-party independents running on vague centrist or centre-right platforms. Former prime minister Mirek Topolánek, who headed a Civic Democrat-led (ODS) governments of 2006-9, running as independent, also seems to be attracting some backing from parts of his former party, helped by outspoken attacks on Zeman questioning the president’s health.
Polls suggest, however, that Zeman has only two serious challengers: Jiri Drahoš, the former head of
the Czech Academy of Sciences, and the journalist, lyricist and music producer turned betting tycoon and philanthropist, Michal Horácek. Although Horácek has waged a slicker campaign, most polls show him in third place with Drahoš the clear favourite to make it into the run-off against Zeman on 26-27 January.
Although keeping a (for him) low profile, Zeman has had a good campaign. He has been picking up support following the launch of December’s bill- board campaign, with bookmakers’ odds making him the clear favourite and little sign of his rivals generating much momentum or public excitement.
However, polls still suggest that Zeman will lose by a clear margin in a run-off against Drahoš, who is forecast to gain most of the first round votes cast for other candidates – emulating a strategy seen in presidential elections in Slovakia and Romania in 2014, when previously little-known independents overhauled seemingly dominant left-wing populists in the second round.
Throughout Drahoš has cultivated a centrist and non- confrontational image, telling interviewers that he had a vision, but no political programme. He also made clear that he would be more than willing to work with Babiš, who he saw as a mainstream politician with
a clear electoral mandate whose government de- served the backing of other mainstream parties.
Zeman will, therefore, be hoping that his non-cam- paign has been well pitched enough to rally his core support among poorer, older, less well-educated Czechs, while leaving diverse groups of voters op- posed to him unmobilised. His most likely path to victory would be to get enough votes behind him to narrowly win the election outright in the first round. The fact that his key challengers are dignified public personas and good CVs, rather than any compel- ling positive vision of a liberal and outward looking Czechia may turn out to be Zeman’s greatest asset.
Seán Hanley is Senior Lecturer in Comparative Central and East European Politics at University College London. This post first appeared on
his personal academic blog.