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May 14, 2015
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along with the res of the frontier Mideast components.
The country also put a new constitution in place, enshrining secular and female rights, but the economy has been stuck in a high- debt, state-run rut. Tunisian GDP growth may rise marginally to 3% this year, accord-
growth this year, and phosphate export prices have started to recover. The Insti- tute for International Finance cited “bold” energy subsidy adjustments in its March outlook, which could bring the fiscal deficit below 4%, and a 15% currency deprecia- tion to aid external accounts. Consecutive
“The trio remains shunned by mainstream emerging market investors”
Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan struggle against security and reform challenges
ing to the IMF – around half the pre-Arab Spring average as youth unemployment is stuck at 25%. The various governments have tried to quell the restive population by raising salaries and spending, and delayed food and fuel subsidy cuts, so the collapse of oil prices will bring some relief, but Tuni- sia's budget deficit will hit 5% this year, as government debt to GDP approaches 50%.
Stubborn inflation at 5% erodes real in- come, while 40% of the population are still employed in the informal economy, turning to smuggling and other illegal activities to make ends meet. The biggest state-owned bank is bust, and non-performing loans con- centrated in the hospitality sector are esti- mated at one-quarter of the total. Rural and non-coastal regions have been undeveloped for decades with high double-digit poverty. the poverty makes residents easy prey for Islamic State recruiters, promising thou- sands of dollars a month to fight in Syria. On the other hand European trade, foreign direct investment and remittances have foundered and left a chronic current account gap.
Morocco is hailed as the "reform leader" after inking a second $5bn IMF precaution- ary pact in mid-2014. Good rainfall could propel agriculture-dependent GDP to 4%
global bond issues have been snapped up, and banks have gained on the stock ex- change with their continental expansion.
However, the decline in household pur- chasing power amid a spurt in inflation has sparked popular grumbling, and business fears that the IS threat could cause the King to harden his stance both on civil and com- mercial liberties. Anti-corruption groups have muted criticism of royal elites running the big- gest conglomerates, who argue their holdings are “strategic” and should be protected from home-grown and foreign competition.
Jordan directly suffers from the Iraq and Syria conflicts closing borders and creating refugees, and it relies on Persian Gulf grants and remittances to maintain its dollar peg and service public debt. Tourism has held up, and the central bank cut interest rates in February to sustain growth. Like its Magh- reb neighbours, Jordan routinely registered 5% GDP growth in an earlier reform era, with the privatisation of state enterprises carried out against a harsh geopolitical backdrop. Tunisia could inject that kind of momentum in the aftermath of the latest security scare by recalling the revolt’s jas- mine roots and allowing economic impera- tives to flower.
Gary Kleiman of Kleiman International
Tunisia, Jordan and Morocco have struggled with security challenges and overdue reforms to fiscal and monetary policy, as well as the banking and private sectors. The trio remains shunned by mainstream emerging market investors despite support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes and EBRD, amongst others, as well as the promise of cash at the the G8 Deauville summit.
Tunisia has it especially bad after its burgeoning tourism sector took a hit fol- lowing a terror attack on the Bardo Na- tional Museum in the Tunisian capital city of Tunis in March. The country successfully elected a new government in 2014 – the fifth civilian-Islamic party coalition since the 2011 revolution – and saw a $1bn sov- ereign bond issue oversubscribed, but the terror attack saw its first-quarter MSCI stock market performance turn negative
Georgia on my menu
Khachapuri. If you do nothing else cultural during your time in Georgia, you have to try the star of the Georgian cuisine - khachapuri. Famous across the entire former Soviet Union, the cheesy bread could be described as "Georgian pizza" but that doesn’t really capture it – 88% of Georgians prefer Khachapuri to pizza.
Made with a tangy local cheese not available in the west (think of Feta mixed
with Gouda) there are several types, but the classic is the Imeretian khachapuri, which is round with melted cheese on top, or Megruli khachapuri, which is the same but with extra cheese on top. Alternatively there is Adjaruli khachapuri, where the bread is formed into a boat and an egg baked on top, and several other alternatives stuffed with potatoes or spinach. It is best eaten with another classic, "Krasni Lobio" (hot red kidney beans) and lots of red wine.
Poll shows political apathy is rife among Ukrainians (March 6-16, 2015) Poll shows political apathy is rife among Ukrainians (March 6-16, 2015)
Candidate popularity
Petro Poroshenko Yulia Tymoshenko
Oleh Lyashko
Anatoliy 4.2% Hrytsenko
Oleh 2.1% Tyahnybok
Serhiy Tihipko 2.1% Arseniy 1.7%
Yatsenyuk Other
Against all Would not vote Don't know
Party popularity
Petro Poroshenko Bloc
Self Reliance 'Samopomich' Party
13.2% 8.0%
5.3%
19.2%
5.0%
6.3%
10.1%
20.1%
23.9%
Radical Party of Oleh 5.7% Lyashko
Fatherland 5.6% 'Batkivshchina' Party
Opposition Bloc 5.3% Right Sector 4.4%
Freedom 'Svoboda' 2.7% Party
People's Front 2.5% Other 5.4%
Would not vote Don't know
23.1% 24.1%
A recent poll by Kyiv-based sociological researchers R&B Group has revealed an overwhelming sense of political apathy among Ukrainians.
Looking at the chart on the left, with 19.2% Poroshenko also led the poll for individual candidate popularity when respondents were asked whom they would vote for were an election held. Even this rating fell short of the 20.1% who
said they would not vote for any of the current potential candidates. 23.9% were undecided.
As the chart above shows, a meagre 13.2% rating was enough to see incumbent president Petro Poroshenko’s ruling bloc lead the party polls, yet this figure fell short of the 23.1% who said they would not vote for any of the parties or the 24.1% who were undecided.