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programme going off track for 18 months). And let’s not forget that Tymoshenko is one of the few oligarchs who have served jailed times for their sins – but in Tymoshenko’s case it was for something she did not do.
Tymoshenko is selling a message of change, of populism, which seemed to be selling well at least earlier in the campaign, if opinion polls were to be believed – as up until very recently she headed polls and seemed a dead cert to be in the second round. Tymoshenko is a political dynamo, a political phoenix – never write her off, as I think we have all learned in the past to our costs.
Zelenskiy is the new kid on the block, a relative political unknown. He is the new fresh face, and taking the space that many of us thought would be occupied by Vakarchuk (whom I incorrectly called as the next president). But he has captured the imagination since his launch, playing on his youth, political inexperience, and his strong media presence already from his career as a successful comedian. He is currently topping the polls, in the 20% plus range, seemingly taking some votes from Tymoshenko, and suggesting now a dog fight for second place, and a run off place, between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko.
Opinion polls suggest that Zelenskiy would beat Poroshenko and Tymoshenko in any run-off vote, albeit many suggest his political and economic policy naiveté will cost him as the campaign develops. There are also question marks around his geopolitical orientation – given alleged business links to Moscow – his business orientation given his comedy show has appeared on the channel of the controversial oligarch, Igor Kolomoisky. He denies he is in the pocket of Moscow, Kolomoisky, or big business, but all this will be tested in the campaign.
If I had to put probabilities on the three candidates’ chances of winning at this stage, I would cautiously put it 25:30:40 on Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and Zelenskiy in that order, with a 5% probability attached to some other outcome.
Q? What will you be watching for in the first round?
Answer: All the focus is who will come first or second, and hence gets thru to the run-off vote, but equally important will be who comes third and then the horse trading, which will go on for these votes. Remember the 2010 elections when [banker, oligarch and former National Bank of Ukraine governor] Serhiy Tigipko came a surprise third and then traded with Yanukovych to ensure his second round victory.
Assuming Zelenskiy secures first or second place, and then Poroshenko and Tymoshenko vie for second and third places, I just wonder what deal either would be prepared to do, to back other candidates in the run-off vote.
Interestingly, therein I guess Tymoshenko will be more prepared to deal, as she has made clear she favours constitutional reform, to move more powers to the Rada, plus electoral reform to go back to a full PR system. I guess she would cut a deal with either Poroshenko or Zelenskiy to ensure that. Guess her problem is that Zelenskiy lacks any deputies in the Rada to ensure passage of any such constitutional reform, and while Poroshenko could deliver such reform via his parliamentary backing (BPP), it’s hard to see Tymoshenko trusting Poroshenko on anything given their long history of rivalry and bad blood. Equally, would Poroshenko want to head a government, with
11 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com