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Q? What about Russia, is there a risk of Russian intervention in these elections?
Answer: Unfortunately Moscow is unlikely to be a constructive force, in and around these elections. Look let’s not forget what Moscow’s agenda is in regard to Ukraine – simply put, Moscow wants Ukraine back in its geopolitical orbit/sphere of influence. And the reality is since 2014 the country (Ukraine) has moved decisively, perhaps terminally, out of that orbit and into that of the West. Kyiv hence presents a clear challenge to Moscow. From these elections Moscow wants a government in Kyiv who will respect its views/wishes, and understands where its ultimate geopolitical orbit should rest – at least from Moscow’s perspective. The political reality though is that after the annexation of Crimea and Russian military intervention in Donbas, no political leader in Kyiv can ever show allegiance to Moscow, without risking their own position at home. Indeed, any Ukrainian leader to try this now I think would risk social unrest at home, and perhaps risk being removed from office. I am not sure that Moscow understands this – but look at the latest opinion polls, which show two thirds of the population wanting a Western orientation and just single digits now wanting closer ties with Moscow. Perhaps Moscow is holding back from further intervention in Ukraine, but what happens once the realisation dawns that who-ever wins the presidential elections in Ukraine, they will continue the Western orientation. At that point Moscow will have to accept the permanent loss of Ukraine from its orbit, or look to escalate. This could be through further military intervention in eastern Ukraine, or through efforts to destabilise the domestic political scene in Ukraine, perhaps by seeking to challenge the election results, perhaps even by promoting street protests. But my strong sense is that Putin is not done with Ukraine, he is simply biding his time, waiting for new opportunities to present themselves to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty, and to try and pull all or bits of Ukraine back under Russia’s orbit. Watch that space.
Q? Could the election result be challenged? Street protests?
Answer: Well after the Orange revolution, and the Euromaidan, I don’t think such outcomes can ever again be entirely discounted in Ukraine. I think Ukrainians would protest in a scenario where one particular candidate ends up winning the election by administrative means even though the strong popular consensus is that they actually lost. In that scenario I think the reform vote would demonstrate and I think the pro-Russian constituency would seek to exploit any such scenario. The hope thus is that such administrative means are not used as they would be very destabilising – let’s hope that all candidates realise this, and don’t give outside actors an excuse to intervene in the domestic political scene more forcibly.
Tim Ash is the Senior Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management. This comment first appeared as an email sent to clients
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14 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com