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4.4.3 Retail sector dynamics
Ukraine’s January retail trade increased 6.3% year-on-year in real terms,
accelerating from 4.9% y/y in December, Ukraine’s state statistics agency Ukrstat reported on February 20. At the same time, retail sales plunged 23% month-on-month in real terms. Regionally, highest retail growth occurred in January in Kyiv (11.3% y/y), Ivano-Frankivsk (10.8% y/y) and the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk regions (9.8% y/y). It was slowest in the Chernihiv (1.3% y/y), Kirovohrad (1.6% y/y) and Volyn (2.0% y/y) regions. Evgeniya Akhtyrko Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital believes that the accelerated growth of retail trade indicates that consumer demand remains high.
Retail trade in Ukraine increased 6.1% in real terms in 2018 , slightly below the 6.5% increase for 2017. The biggest jumps were in Ukrainian-controlled Luhansk – up 27% -- and Donetsk – up 14%. fuelled partly by remittances from Ukrainians working abroad, retail was one of the three pillars of growth last year’s 3.4% growth – led by agriculture – up 8.2%; and construction – up 6.3%. Concorde Capital’s Evgeniya Akhtyrko writes: “We expect real retail to increase 6-7% y/y in 2019. It will be driven by real disposable income growth.”
Ukrainians spend 44% of their income on food and non-alcoholic beverages, according to the latest household survey conducted by the State Statistical Survey. The average household cash income during the third quarter of 2018 was $335. The average household was 2.1 people.
30 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com