Page 33 - UKRRptMar19

2018 , the state statistics service Ukrstat stated in its preliminary report on February 14.
Imports of goods reached $57.1bn, advancing 15.2% y/y, while exports amounted to $47.3bn, growing 9.4% y/y. The major contributors to import growth were machinery (20.7% y/y), energy (14.3% y/y) and metals (18.7% y/y).
Export growth was driven by ferrous metals (14.7% y/y), grains (11.4% y/y), and mineral products (9.9% y/y).
In December alone, the goods trade deficit amounted to $0.95bn, enlarging 10.8% month-on-month. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit declined 19.5% m/m amid a 1.0% m/m drop in adjusted exports and a 4.3% m/m decline in adjusted imports.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on February 15 that the provisional customs statistics promise a small goods trade deficit of $79.4mn in January amid a significant month-to-month drop in imports.
"Lower imports volumes in the beginning of the year are usual in Ukraine’s external trade balance, and the first-quarter results might be misleading in extending them for the rest of the year," he added.
Concorde forecasts the 2019 goods trade deficit (according to Ukrstat methodology) will swell to $11.5bn, with import growth outpacing export increases.
33 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com