Page 40 - UKRRptMar19

6.0 Public Sector 6.1 Budget
Budget and debt indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
State budget revenues, UAH bln
231.7
209.7
240.6
314.6
346
339.2
357
519
616.3
724
905.2
% of GDP
24.4%
23.0%
22.3%
24.2%
24.6%
23.2%
22.8%
26.9%
26.2%
26.3%
25.8%
State budget expenditures, UAH bln
244.2
245.2
304.9
338.1
399.4
403.9
435
552
686.4
806
1,001
% of GDP
25.8%
26.8%
28.3%
26.0%
28.4%
27.6%
27.8%
29.2%
28.9%
29.3%
28.5%
State budget balance, UAH bln
-12.5
-35.5
-64.3
-23.6
-53.4
-64.7
-78
-33
-70.1
-82
-96
% of GDP
-1.3%
-3.9%
-6.0%
-1.8%
-3.8%
-4.4%
-5.0%
-1.7%
-3.0%
-3.0%
-3.0%
Public debt, UAH bln
189
318
432
473
516
584
1,101
1,594
1,930
2,175
2,285
% GDP
20.0%
34.8%
40.1%
36.4%
36.7%
39.9%
70.3%
82.7%
82.1%
79.0%
65.2%
S ource: SP Advisors
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - results
Ukraine’s general budget switched to a surplus of UAH268mn ($10mn) in January from a UAH88.3bn deficit in December, the State Treasury reported on February 26.
General budget revenue increased 3.6% year-on-year to UAH73.9bn (vs 18.6% y/y growth in December). Budget expenditures surged 46.2% y/y to UAH73.7bn, speeding up from 19.6% y/y growth in December.
Tax revenue inched up 2.1% y/y (vs 13.3% y/y growth in December). In particular, net VAT revenue plummeted 66.1% y/y after 48.3% y/y growth in December. The decline was due to a 64.2% y/y surge in VAT reimbursement to exporters, while gross VAT revenue climbed 8.4% y/y, keeping the same growth rate as in December.
At the same time, personal income tax revenue accelerated to 22.8% y/y growth from a 19.7% y/y rise in December. In addition, the enterprise profit tax surged 52.1% y/y (vs. 30.8% y/y decline in December). Non-tax revenue increased 21.9% y/y (vs a 42.1% y/y surge in December).
The growth of non-tax revenue was mostly due to unclassified “other” revenues. Meanwhile, income from ownership and entrepreneurship declined 6.9% y/y after a 74.6% y/y surge in December.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote n a note on February 28 that the accelerated growth of budget expenditures is not a surprise as presidential elections are approaching. At the same time, budget revenues do not look very promising.
40 UKRAINE Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com